The weekly RSI shows a clear bullish divergence!

That does not mean we’re out of the woods yet and lower lows are still possible. Nevertheless, this is promising and hints at an end for this bear market. Let’s take a closer look below.

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I’ve been waiting for this signal on Bitcoin all year and it finally came. The weekly RSI is finally painting a clear bullish divergence.

Take a look at it below.

As you can see, while the price made lower lows, the RSI made higher lows. That’s exactly what you want to see if you’re scouting for a bottom on Bitcoin.

To get confirmation that the bullish divergence is valid, you’d need Bitcoin’s price to make a higher high in the future (above 82k), or at least a higher low (around 60k). That would increase the confidence that the bottom is behind us.

That’s because a bullish divergence can take months to materialize, and in that time, the price can continue to make lower lows and the RSI to re-confirm the bullish divergence.

As such, I’d not dismiss a new price drop in the future.

If that happens, it’s probably a good time to buy since this pattern will eventually see buyers push BTC into a sustained rally. Most likely towards the end of 2026.

Plus, one indicators showing a bullish bias is not enough either.

You need to find confluences in price action, volume, and momentum.

On the momentum side, the weekly MACD also looks good, with clear higher lows (left chart below). However, on the monthly timeframe (right chart), the MACD remains bearish with a flat histogram that could curve up. It’s just too early to say.

So what’s missing?

First, the price action on Bitcoin is still weak. The price is around 65k at the time of this post, but we really need it to push higher to end the ongoing macro downtrend. That seems unlikely in the near term.

Secondly, the volume profile does not confirm a bottom. Usually, when a bottom or top is made, the volume profile explodes with a huge candle. Take a look at the below daily volume on Coinbase, I don’t see that spike at the 58k price.

On the contrary, the drop to 58k was on low volume. While buyers came in a sustained way, there was no spike. Historically, volume is a great bottom indicator, but I can’t see it on this chart. That tells me two things:

• The bottom is not in and it’s still coming

• This cycle is different

I don’t buy the “this cycle is different” narrative since that’s exactly what everyone said about the 4-year cycle. Yet, Bitcoin crashed exactly on time.

With that said, there is a good chance Bitcoin will make a lower low, perhaps just under 50k. That’s when volume could explode to give us a clear bottom and another bullish divergence point on the weekly RSI.

In that moment, I’m a buyer and won’t wait for more bullish signals since that would make me quite greedy. As mentioned before, even if we don’t get a lower low later this year, I will start buying after October no matter the price.

Missing out on Bitcoin because you waited for a specific price will hurt when it rallies again beyond 100k. That may very well happen in 2027. Best to DCA before the year ends and if we get another drop, buy it.

Good luck and subscribe below for more market alpha!

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Before the end of this year, the market will likely bottom, and you need to be there when it happens.

In this post, I share with you what I plan to buy and when, including my top three assets you MUST own. Let’s start.

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TLDR: This past week, Bitcoin fell again under 60k to make a lower low. That’s quite bearish and the price is also making lower highs. Because of that, expect Bitcoin to continue its downtrend until a bottom is found.

The current projection based on the last bear market suggest that BTC will likely bottom sometimes in the last quarter of 2026. The chart says October, but that is quite specific and we got to have some margin of error.

Either way, expecting a bottom sometimes later this year is a sensible bet. That’s why I argue that you only have a few more months to finalize your Bitcoin buying plan. Do this now or until September. Then you’ll likely need to execute it.

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Your buy plan should answer three questions:

1. When do you plan to buy Bitcoin? What are your triggers (price / time)?

2. How much do you plan to buy? Do you have the cash on stand-by?

3. Why are you buying Bitcoin? What’s the long term view?

Once you have those questions settled, all you need to do is wait and execute based on your trigger points. In my case, that’s a price anywhere under 50k. If I won’t get that price by the end of the year, I’ll buy BTC at any price.

That’s because my answer to the third question is that Bitcoin will make new historic highs in the near future. I don’t want to miss on that.

Now, let’s move to the alpha of this week.

In my previous Alpha Post (#92), I mentioned three altcoins to watch. One of them is called Venice or VVV. I was bearish on Venice because the chart already pumped by 20x and suggested a short is probably a good risk/reward bet.

When I posted that, the price was above $15. Today it’s $11. The VVV token crashed over 30% since. I can totally see this visit the support at $9-$10 before buyers return.

Similarly, today, I also have three assets you MUST own in your portfolio. Missing on these is likely going to get very expensive later on in terms of opportunity cost.

Let’s dive in.

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While most are calling the market dead, smart money is preparing to buy.

In this post, we’ll look at Bitcoin’s previous bear market and how it compares to today. But first, a few words on the public sale from Squid which is going live in 24h!

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You got to be pretty bold to do a public sale in today’s market, yet Squid is totally going for it. If you don’t know Squid, this is an aggregator that bridges crypto assets across chains. Partners include Maelstrom, Ripple, and Polychain Capital.

The tokenomics look good to me since sale participants get full access to their tokens upon TGE while most of the team and investors are locked out for over 12 months via vesting. The raise is also reasonable at $2.25M.

You can participate via Legion or Kraken. If you used Squid in the past you can fill in the priority allocation form to get ahead of the crowd. If you used Legion with other public sales, this will be pretty straightforward, you deposit USDC on Ethereum and then see if you’re selected once the round closes. If not, you get the cash back.

Long term, I’d be careful about holding this token beyond 12 months post-TGE since once the vesting ends, the token will inflate quite a bit. This thread also gives a good overview.

With that behind us, let’s move to Bitcoin.

The above chart went viral on X the other day. The more people call Bitcoin dead, the more confident you should be in buying. This is also an excellent sign that we’re approaching a bottom.

The other bottom signal is Saylor selling Bitcoin recently which prompted his MSTR and STRC shares to crash hard. See the charts below.

I’d be patient here, but the above price action on MSTR and STRC shows we’re entering the last phase of a bear market where people lose faith and exit at massive losses.

There is also the aspect of leverage.

A lot of investors bought STRC to farm that 12% yield, on leverage. However, as soon as STRC started to fall, they were margin called, and then a liquidation cascade started for anyone with a leverage beyond 3x.

Other people decided to launch stablecoins backed by STRC a while back, marketing that yield as easy money. As you can imagine, their stablecoin stopped being stable as soon as STRC fell below $100. The idea was that STRC will stay around $100 due to its yield. This assumption was proven wrong as soon as STRC crashed to $70.

The reason I mention these things is because the financial alchemy created by Saylor is unraveling before our eyes. He constructed a house of cards or a ponzi called Strategy which is no longer working. Him being forced to sell Bitcoin was the key signal.

While the bottom may still take some time to materialize, I don’t think it’s far away anymore. On the contrary, it may be just around the corner. That’s why I took a look at the previous Bitcoin bear market and mapped it across the ongoing one.

The result speaks for itself.

If the past is of any indication in the future, then you want to be a buyer of Bitcoin around October 2026. This chart says Bitcoin will fall under 40k briefly in October then start its next bull run in 2027.

That’s pretty much aligned with my current bias. We bottom in late 2026 and then 2027 turns into a bullish year. I also said for a while now that buying anywhere under 50k should be a solid entry and I wrote more on that here.

Considering that Bitcoin already traded under 60k this past week, we’re getting very close now. Use these coming months wisely and let me know in the comments what’s your key signal to buy Bitcoin?

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Nevertheless, opportunities are opening up for new asymmetric trades.

Below are my top three plays right now.

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TLDR: With the drop under 60k, and a lower low, Bitcoin remains bearish. Moreover, buyers tried to poke at the 65k resistance, but were rejected. These signs point at new lows later.

Unfortunately, the momentum on Bitcoin remains bearish. This was expected since it formed a third ascending channel, which was a bearish signal and mirrored the price action since late 2025.

Right now, the price is juggling between 60k and 65k. Bulls tried to break above 65k, which is the current resistance, but they were rejected. To get any optimism back, 65k has turn into support. However, that seems like a big ask right now.

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The most likely scenario is that Bitcoin will fall lower after it consolidates in this range between 60k and 65k. I don’t think the downtrend ends until Bitcoin falls under 50k. For more details on that, see this previous post I made on When to Buy Bitcoin in this Bear Market.

Now, let’s move to the alpha of this week.

The top level alpha in crypto right now is that being bullish is dangerous. If you want to go long, you have better chances at trading on NASDAQ or TradFi. The recent listing of SpaceX was an instant 40% profit.

Just be mindful, because that one also has a catch.

Post IPO, there are very few liquid shares to sell due to vesting. Once that vesting ends, the stock will likely dump hard before new highs.

Still, I have one coins I am actively accumulating right now since its corrective cycle is about to end. When you judge a coin, always assess its chart independent of the overall market. Then scale out to seek confluences.

Let’s begin.

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It’s called the Bitcoin Realized Price.

This indicator never failed to provide an excellent entry during bear markets. Scroll down to start.

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First, let’s start with the boring definition before we look at the chart and what it tells us. TLDR: Bitcoin never bottomed without trading below its realized price.

The current Bitcoin Realized Price is 53k

Any price under that level is a buy signal based on historical data. Ideally, you want to dollar-cost average (DCA) as soon as Bitcoin falls under that green line. You DCA until it climbs above it.

If you still have money left to buy at that point, you FOMO in.

This is how the data looks from previous cycles:

• 2011: BTC bottomed at $2.1, 58% below the Realized Price of $5

• 2015: BTC bottomed at $152, 49% below the Realized Price of $300

• 2018: BTC bottomed at $3.2k, 47% below the Realized Price of $6k

• 2022: BTC bottomed at $15.4k, 34% below the Realized Price of $23.3k

This pattern also shows that with each subsequent cycle, Bitcoin bottoms closer to the realized price. Consequentially, in this bear market, Bitcoin will likely bottom between 50k and 40k.

That’s around 24% under today’s realized price if Bitcoin find a bottom around 40k. In my previous posts, I argued the range between 50k and 30k is a prime buy area. This supports that case and may indicate a price under 40k is optimistic.

Another point worth mentioning is that with the exception of the COVID crash, Bitcoin stays for months under its realized price. Therefore, plenty of time to buy in and DCA. There is no rush and you want to capture the full move until the bottom.

Don’t FOMO in one go as soon as the price falls under the green line, give yourself time and margin to scale in.

If I were to guess for a prime time to do this, I’d place that period between the last quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Anywhere in that range you should get your prime entry.

I will of course update you as soon as this happens and revise this analysis.

What’s your current strategy to buy Bitcoin? Leave your best tips in the comments so others can benefit.

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Saylor only sold 32 Bitcoin, but it was enough to send the price crashing almost 10% this week. Considering his 840k BTC holding, this move cost him $6 billion.

With this news, it seems Bitcoin will find a bottom much sooner. Time to look at 5 key charts that will help you time the bottom. Scroll down.

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It was only a matter of time until Saylor’s financial alchemy called “Strategy” would lead him to sell Bitcoin. Not surprised to see him do this in the midst of a bear market.

He’s got bills to pay in the form of monthly yields to his preferred stock holders.

Since MicroStrategy generates no revenue on its Bitcoin holding, the yield can only come from one source.

Selling Bitcoin.

At this point, MSTR and its strategy smell like the biggest ponzi in crypto and mirrors the Terra Luna UST ponzi. I also posted about it here on X.

The problem is that when this pyramid will unravel, Bitcoin’s price will suffer, a lot. It already crashed 10% only on the idea that Saylor can and is willing to sell Bitcoin.

Still, this may provide a generational entry to buy more Bitcoin. Below, 5 charts to guide you in the coming months.

1. Bitcoin Price Chart

This is the third time Bitcoin formed an ascending channel only to break below it. This pattern was bearish from the start and I covered that in my Alpha Posts several times.

The expectation here is a re-test of the lows around 60k. It’s likely that support level won’t hold and Bitcoin will make new lows. If we measure the previous drop and add it to this last formation, the price lands exactly on 50k.

I believe a price around 50k and below is a trigger to dollar-cost average (DCA) into Bitcoin. The prime buy area is between 50k and 30k. We don’t know where Bitcoin will bottom, but I believe this drop may be the last one or second to last.

2. USDT Market Cap

In the past two weeks, the USDT market cap decreased by almost $2 billion. That’s liquidity that has left the crypto space. This is extremely bearish and a key signal in a bear market.

In the below chart, I’m presenting the USDT market cap MACD indicator on the monthly timeframe. The last time we had a bearish cross, the bear market lasted for another eight months before Bitcoin started to grind higher. That aligns with my expectations that 2026 remains a bearish year and bulls return in 2027.

Limiting the analysis to this chart, you want to wait as long as the USDT MACD histogram (the yellow bars) makes lower lows. As soon as that trend starts to reverse and the MACD histogram starts moving up again with higher lows, you want to start buying Bitcoin.

You can also speculate and buy earlier as soon as the histogram is losing momentum during its downtrend. That can be done by measuring the height of each monthly histogram bar. As soon as the difference between months falls and gets smaller, it’s a good signal to buy. That shows sellers are getting exhausted.

3. USDT + USDC Dominance

Another way to look at the market is to measure the dominance of USDC and USDC market caps vs all other crypto assets. In a bear market, the dominance of stablecoins increases as Bitcoin and other altcoins bleed lower.

As expected, this chart has been in an uptrend since late 2025 when the proper bear market started. Historically, this chart topped anywhere around 15%. At the time of this post, we’re around 11.5%. Still some room left to go.

You want to buy Bitcoin and other crypto assets when the stablecoin dominance hits a plateau like in 2022. Buying in that zone should provide an optimal risk/reward entry. Keep an eye on that 15% resistance, especially if it aligns with the other charts at the same time.

4. BTC/Gold Ratio

The Bitcoin & Gold ratio was one of the best indicators for this cycle top. It will likely also be a prime signal for the bottom. As you can see on the chart, we had a short relief rally between March and May and now the downtrend is resuming.

I’d expect new lows here similar to the Bitcoin price chart. Nevertheless, as soon as this ratio falls into the blue box it’s probably good to start DCA with orders going all the way down to 9.

The reason you want to buy into that box is because, in the past, that was the area where Bitcoin found support and started its next major bull market. However, there is no rush to buy since Bitcoin may stay in that box for months before it leaves.

5. Total Crypto Market Dominance

Notice how the chart on total crypto market dominance mirrors the BTC/Gold ratio. Same candle pattern. This is interesting and builds up confluence or confidence into this analysis.

Similarly, you want to speculate entries in the blue box. Wait for lower lows and then signs of sellers exhaustion (like the histogram point on USDT MACD above).

Either way, you can also use a time stop or limit. Regardless of where the Bitcoin price will land, you want to be a buyer in the last few months of 2026. That means a prime buy period could end up being October to December.

Alternatively, you can wait to buy in early 2027. By then, charts should look ready for a reversal and a new bull market. That works well if you aim to buy strength rather than speculate on the exact bottom.

Parting words

Which of the above charts is your favorite and why?

I aim to load up on Bitcoin later this year. If you plan to buy altcoins, it may also be a good opportunity, but notice that some alts like HYPE or ZEC had their own mini bull market in 2026 while everything else was in red.

Coins that already pumped will likely underperform once Bitcoin starts moving since they are in different market cycle. Make sure to judge each coin on its own individual chart before any macro bias you may have.

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This week, we look at the Top 3 Altcoins I have my eyes on.

More on that soon, but first a look at Bitcoin.

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Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: This week, Bitcoin tested the 75k support level. This held well and could be a bullish re-test. However, to really turn bullish, the price needs to clear 85k and turn that into support.

At a macro level, Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend. The current ascending channel may look bullish on a short to medium timeframe, but if the price falls below it, then that’s a continuation of this bear market.

The current support at 75k held well and the price was helped by the US & Iran peace negotiations. Nevertheless, as long as Bitcoin sits in this channel, the expectations is an eventual breakdown. To change that, the price has to move above 85k.

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A price between 75k and 85k is more of a neutral zone from where Bitcoin can go either way. Wait for a clear move above or below these key levels. Once confirmed, we will know where Bitcoin is headed next. Best to be patient here.

Now let’s move to the alpha of this week.

Since last week, my call on Octra delivered a whooping 140% profit. Just look at the chart below. Subscribing to this newsletter costs $9 / month (yearly plan) and it only takes one piece of alpha to cover that plus much more.

Privacy is big in this cycle if we look at the Zcash or Monero pumps. Together, these two privacy coins gather $18 billion in market cap right now. Octra is still under $50 million and takes privacy to a whole new level!

I already explained the Octra fundamentals in the last alpha post. It only takes 1% of the profits from Zcash or Monero to find Octra and this will 10x from here. Octra could even be a 100x pump!

Time will tell, and you need to be patient with this if you want such returns.

Now let’s talk about this week’s Top 3 Altcoins!

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Imagine AAVE or Uniswap, but encrypted end-to-end and self-contained within its own confidential on-chain execution environment.

The confidentiality goes beyond the chain itself. Such DeFi protocols can be private and encrypted even from the network itself or its validators. Then add AI agents operating or using such apps while everything stays encrypted.

This is not something in the future, it’s available today! Scroll down to find more about it, but first an update about Bitcoin.

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Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: Everyone got excited seeing Bitcoin above 80k, but it was a trap! The price reversed course and is now on its way to test the 75k support. If that fails to hold, expect new lows later on.

The pump at the end of this week was a prime short opportunity and a trap set by market makers to trap FOMO buyers. This was very evident on the HYPE chart and I flagged it at that point on X.

While everyone got excited seeing Bitcoin above 80k, the price was still in a bearish channel, as presented on the below chart. As soon as Bitcoin reached its upper limit, sellers returned.

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This price action should not be surprising since it respects the macro trend. Bitcoin already completed and broke down from two similar patterns since late 2025. This would be the third, and perhaps, the last time it happens before Bitcoin finds a bottom.

If Bitcoin fall under the 75k support, expect new lows in the coming months. Anything between 50k to 30k is a buy area in my book and I am patiently waiting for that moment. Invalidation of this bias is a price above this last channel.

Be patient. Stack cash for that buy opportunity. It’s coming.

It’s not often that I see an asymmetric opportunity in the market. But this one qualifies and I FOMOed into it with my ETH bag.

The reason is pretty straightforward.

Instead of holding Ethereum which may not do more than a 2x in the foreseeable future, I’d rather hold something that has higher risk, but can deliver a 10x or more by next year.

Go big or go home!

Before sharing that alpha, here is an update on the pmalt vault I shilled in my last newsletter which is public for all to read. Our members printed on this and was an easy way to make the yearly YCC subscription for this newsletter on that alpha alone!

I deposited $5,000 in that vault to test it, and since then, it booked over $630 in profit, or a return of 12% in less than a month. At the current APR rate, you’d more than double your money in a year.

Now lets move to the alpha of this week. If you love the privacy meta, this one is for you!

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The space is maturing and the yield opportunities are multiplying, but not all are created equal.

In this article, I’ll present two yield farming examples you should add to your watchlist. They are already competitive today and will likely become a top choice in a bull market.

The first example is a more classic approach to yield generation, but the second is quite exotic, yet deserves much needed attention considering its huge returns. Let’s start!

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1. Liminal - limUSD

This is a yield-bearing token like sUSDai that grows in value over time based on its APY performance. Check it out at this link!

Liminal is a Hyperliquid ecosystem protocol that farms delta neutral yields (funding fees) across the most popular coins listed on the Hyperliquid exchange. While this worked well in a bull market, yields have fallen in a bear market.

Plus, delta neutral strategies are quite an advance trading technique to farm funding fees and it’s hard to attract retail with that. This is why Liminal developed the xTokens, like xHYPE.

Instead of users managing an active delta neutral strategy, Liminal simplified this process with the xTokens where the strategy is automated and users only have to hold the xTokens (e.g. xHYPE or xBTC) to get the underlying yield from funding fees.

Now, they went one step further and introduced limUSD.

limUSD will automatically allocate deposited funds across their xTokens chasing yields. Moreover, when funding fees are negative or low, the protocol can re-allocate funds to money markets, staking or TradFi (treasury yields). This keeps yields competitive and protects users against negative funding rates.

In this sense, Liminal acts as a vault curator or strategy manager. This is why they charge a 10% performance fee on any APY generated by the limUSD token. The funds will likely be distributed across a number of yield avenues to spread risk and maximize returns.

limUSD is natively available on HyperEVM, Ethereum, Arbitrum and soon Solana and you can mint it against USDC, USDT0 or USDH on this page. Then all you have to do is hold the token to accrue the yield. You can also bridge limUSD across networks at no cost (except gas fees).

There is no fee to mint limUSD. However, if you want to redeem to stablecoins there is a 0.3% fee for instant redemptions that goes to limUSD holders based on the available liquidity buffer. Alternatively, you can wait 7 days for zero fee redemptions.

With that said, lets move to the next example which is more exotic, but has 10x the returns! What?! Scroll down.

2. Hyperliquid - What is the Best Vault?

The best APR may be misleading, that’s why we look at the Sharpe ratio too.

When Hyperliquid launched, they introduced public vaults where anyone could deploy a trading strategy and attract deposits if they were successful. Opening a vault used to be free, but now it has a fee of $10,000.

This new fee has created a huge filter that only attracts professional vault managers that know what they are doing since nobody wants to burn 10k with a few clicks. This has both reduced the number of vaults and boosted their quality by quite a margin.

When you measure a vault performance, it’s not enough to look at raw APR or TVL. For example, in the above image the drkmttr vault has an APR of 635%, but that comes with a big caveat.

In the period December 2025 - April 2026, the vault had a max drawdown of 159% with no positive returns, unless you were lucky to enter at the bottom. Plus two depositors own $4.5M of the total TVL. For these reasons, this vault is high risk in my opinion, despite its excellent recent performance.

A good vault strategy should reduce max drawdown and show a steady gain over time, despite any intra-day or weekly volatility. This can also be measured using the Sharpe ratio.

The Sharpe ratio tells you how smooth the ride or line is to the upside (see the PNL line above). The higher the Sharpe the less bumps on the road (or less drawdowns). Ideally you want a Sharpe above 1 and definitely above zero since it can also go negative. Below a scale:

• < 1.0: Poor/Sub-optimal

• 1.0 – 1.99: Good/Acceptable

• 2.0 – 2.99: Very Good

• > 3.0: Excellent/Outstanding

The drkmttr vault has a Sharpe of 0.52, meaning its high performance has high drawdowns. Not ideal long term. Short term, it may be good to capitalize on its performance since this month it returned over 52% or 635% annualized! Crazy.

Naturally, we then ask ourselves the following question.

What is the vault with the best Sharpe on Hyperliquid?

• It’s called pmalt and its Sharpe is 3.34!

That’s almost unbelievable, yet this vault has been ongoing for over 571 days. Check the PNL line below, it’s a steady uptrend with minor fluctuations. That makes the Sharpe high. It’s current APR is 89% or 10x higher than Liminal’s limUSD.

The max drawdown on this vault is 1.88% in the past year. Below is a comparison of the two vaults: drkmttr and pmalt. Long term, pmalt is superior.

The pmalt vault APR can vary from 50% to over 100%. From a risk perspective, its Sharpe ratio is amazing, and the strategy is working great. That does not mean things can’t change in the future!

However, the vault operates a delta neutral / pair trading strategy which keeps drawdowns low since it makes a profit on any direction in the markets. I believe the vault is farming mean reversion and divergences between pairs.

Since the strategy is naturally hedged, even the October 10th 2025 crash did not impact it much. On the contrary, it is one of the few vaults that made good money on that day.

The pmalt vault manager can be followed on X at this link and I suggest you follow them if you plan to make a deposit. I believe this vault will become a top 10 one in due time.

Note that there is a cap in vault deposits since the leader has to own at least 5% of the total TVL. Hence if the cap is hit, the leader needs to deposit more to increase the cap and allow new deposits. This makes vault operators have skin in the game.

Another vault that does well in a bullish market is the one called Long Hype & BTC | Short Garbage. I recommend this vault if you’re bullish on HYPE. If HYPE is in a correction/downtrend, avoid it.

You can check the individual vault stats on this page or compare them, simply enter the vault name in the search bar and you can select it. Then scroll down for the vault stats by timeframe.

Let me know in the comments if you’re using any Hyperliquid vaults and how that went for you to date.

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You can withdraw to your US and/or EU bank accounts instantly, up to $10 million. US wires, ACH or SEPA for Euro withdrawals with no markup.

This is probably the best route available in crypto if you want to avoid centralized exchanges like Coinbase during your on/off-ramps. Intrigued? Scroll down for more after I take a look at Bitcoin and what I’m currently farming!

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Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: Bitcoin nearly touched 80k before sellers returned to push back, sending the price to the 75k support level. So far, that support held well and bulls may prepare a new attempt at breaking 80k.

After Bitcoin bottomed at 60k, the price entered a relief rally which could well go to 85k and still maintain a bearish bias long term. If you look at the chart, you can see the bearish channel in red. This is the third one since the top at 126k.

The expectation here is that 85k will likely stop any rally and send Bitcoin towards new lows. Only if 85k turns into a support with new highs around 100k would Bitcoin have a chance at ending this bear market.

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For now, the short term bias remains bullish, but as soon as the price hits that 85k wall, it’s best to tame your expectations since sellers may return in force to send Bitcoin towards a final bottom in this bear market.

I believe any price under 50k is a prime buy area and I recommend stacking cash for that moment. It can happen at any time in the second half of this year. If by the end of 2026, BTC still didn’t make new lows under 60k, it’s probably best to buy whatever price you get.

Before I dive into this week’s alpha let me share with you what I am farming at the moment:

• USDai - Season 2 Airdrop

The first USDai airdrop (Season 1) was solid with the CHIP token doing a quick 3x after it was credited in our wallets. I sold above 10 cents and posted about it publicly on X and on our Discord. That’s a great return for our participating members!

If you want to join me for the Season 2 airdrop, use this invite and add liquidity on these Fluid or Curve sUSDai/USDC pools. You only need USDC on Arbitrum to deposit into the pools and you’ll earn 6-10% APY on your money while farming the next airdrop.

The full list of opportunities to farm allo points in Season 2 can be seen here.

• NADO - Decentralized Exchange Airdrop

After Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter airdrops, the next major decentralized exchange that is worth farming is called NADO and it’s still in private mode. You need an invite to join in early and I still have a few invites left. Claim them here.

If you like to trade and also farm an airdrop at the same time, this is the way! Don’t miss on this opportunity. The fees on NADO are even lower than Hyperliquid and I wrote more about it here as well.

Now let’s move to this week’s alpha: how to withdraw stablecoins to your bank account with no fees or centralized exchanges. You won’t find a better deal in crypto right now - that includes deposits from your bank!

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Since the rsETH exploit, AAVE incurred over $200 million in bad debt and lost more than $10 billion in TVL as everyone rushed for the exits.

AAVE’s reputation and trust are compromised to the level that it is now fighting for its very survival. At the time of writing this, there is no solution to its bad debt problem and billions in assets are still stuck on their platform with users unable to withdraw.

This is what we call a black swan event in crypto. As a central nexus in DeFi, AAVE impacted everyone. Where next from here? I got a few suggestions below.

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How AAVE became compromised?

If you missed the events around AAVE and the rsETH exploit, I encourage you to read this long tweet I made that went viral. It gives a good overview. TLDR below.

Since this started, more than three days ago, AAVE lost over $10 billion in TVL across its core Ethereum markets, which were the most affected by the exploit. For example, their USDT market went from $4.5 billion to $2 billion as of today.

With AAVE on silent mode, it’s unlikely things will change any times soon as more and more liquidity leaves their platform. This impacted most of their markets as people look for alternatives. More on that soon.

The irony here is that AAVE became the biggest loser, even if the exploit itself had nothing to do with them directly. Their exposure to rsETH became critical because they allowed a risky asset to be collateral. Some say it was listed by AAVE due to a conflict of interest.

Worse, they allowed hundreds of millions to be borrowed against such an asset. Therefore, the hacker was quick to take advantage of this. Since all markets were impacted, AAVE users that never heard or touched rsETH were also affected.

How this will end, nobody knows. There are too many affected stakeholders involved and they appear to be lawyering up instead of cooperating to find a settlement that can benefit users.

Even AAVE put this loss on their users instead of coming up with a clear plan on how to mitigate this huge oversight in their governance and risk management. If you’re still using AAVE, I recommend to reconsider, and look at the below alternatives.

1. Fluid

They innovated while others stalled.

Fluid is a relatively new entrant into the lending markets at just under $1 billion in TVL. Their advantage is in their agility and eagerness to innovate in the lending space while others lag behind.

For example, soon after the AAVE crisis started, Fluid created an AAVE collateral swap that allowed trapped users on AAVE to sell their ETH positions and exit impacted markets at negligible cost.

This is because Fluid has ETH loops on AAVE and this swap allowed them to unwind their positions, reduce their exposure, and give users a way out. A win-win.

Another advantage of Fluid is their more efficient markets in terms of lending rates and yields. Since you can borrow against your liquidity pool tokens that earn yield, you pay less in borrowing costs.

Fluid also provides an easy way to earn yield via their Lite feature that automates yield generation. However, be careful of the underlying exposure. In this case, Fluid acts like a Morpho curator/vault and you take additional risks if they move your money into risky assets to chase higher yields. More on that next.

2. Morpho Markets

A direct competitor to AAVE.

The problem with AAVE, which Morpho has fixed some time ago, is that all deposits in v3 enter one big pot. When the hacker came and borrowed assets from that pot (by posting fake collateral), every AAVE depositor was affected in some way.

On Morpho, you can use discrete markets that allow just one type of collateral and one type of borrowing asset. This segregates risks and contains them to that market. Had AAVE used such a mechanic for rsETH, which v4 would have allowed for, the contagion would not have been this dramatic.

An example of such a market is presented below which uses only WBTC and USDC. You post BTC and borrow USDC, that’s it. AAVE simply allowed too many collateral assets (hence more risks) on their v3 platform which eventually lead to the current disaster.

The problem with Morpho is not these markets, but rather the vaults provided by their curators. Sometimes, in the rush to chase higher yields and profits, Morpho curators expose users to exotic assets that lead to losses (like the Resolv USR hack).

I don’t recommend using Morphos vaults, they are too dangerous since curators have little incentives to protect users that deposit there. Curators take a cut on any profits, so they always aim to maximize that even if risks are high for depositors.

Overall, Morpho is a solid choice at over $6 billion in TVL if you know and understand the markets you play in.

3. Spark Protocol (former MakerDAO)

One of the oldest lending markets in crypto.

The creator of the DAI stablecoin, MakerDAO, is one of the oldest lending protocol in crypto. They have since rebranded to Spark / Sky and launched a new stablecoin called USDS to replace DAI.

They faced their ups and downs over the years, but during this AAVE crisis, over a billion in liquidity that left AAVE went to them, making Spark the key beneficiary of this crisis.

This is for a very good reason.

Spark also had rsETH on their platform as a collateral, but was removed. They applied a much tighter risk mitigation policy which has now paid handsomely. When you deal with billions, you need to put user protection and risk mitigation as a top priority. This means being very picky on your collateral assets.

Spark delivered where AAVE failed.

This makes them a favorite among whales and is one of the most robust protocols out there. Together, Spark and Sky hold over $10 billion in TVL and may rival AAVE for the top spot in lending if AAVE continues to bleed liquidity.

4. Honorable Mentions

• Hyperliquid emerging ecosystem of lending markets and related DeFi

• Jupiter lend and similar protocols on Solana

• Uniswap if all you want to do is earn yield on your liquidity

• Curve finance has a growing lending market with crvUSD

• Pendle yields are always attractive

Whatever you choose, pick security first. Avoid exotic assets (like Ethena’s USDe) and if you spot teams getting greedy (like AAVE Labs), get out. Greed in crypto is the first sign things will go wrong.

For example, the AAVE Labs founder (Stani) bought a mansion in central London worth $30 million, then proceeded to do a hostile takeover over the AAVE DAO, removed other service providers that were uncomfortable, and paid himself $50 million in DAO funds to develop AAVE v4.

Weeks later, the AAVE crisis started. Coincidence?

I think the AAVE DAO was so focused on fighting themselves, they forgot their protocol was securing over $26 billion in assets (now under $16 billion). Expensive mistake that costed them billions in TVL. They got complacent and greedy.

But the biggest loss is the trust of their users.

I also had assets in AAVE, but luckily I removed them in time. I will never use AAVE again, especially while it is under the current leadership which also failed to manage this crisis from the start.

Let me know if I missed any good DeFi protocols that are worth attention and drop them in the comments. Like and share this post to spread awareness!

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You buy the top and sell the bottom. That’s instant liquidity for your counterparts.

To avoid being manipulated, you need to base your decisions on an objective reality. That’s represented by the price chart, not emotions.

In what follows, I’ll show you three charts with pure alpha on Bitcoin and where it is going. This is free knowledge that will help you be a better trader and investor.

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Where is Bitcoin going and how to spot it?

1. The Macro View of Bitcoin

Whenever you are in doubt, zoom out. Emotions are usually triggered by low timeframe price action. This is why, when you feel like you’re about to FOMO or sell the bottom, try to zoom out first to calm down.

Below I show you the monthly timeframe of Bitcoin since 2019.

The price is clearly in an uptrend, but has created a huge bearish wedge. For now, the price held well at the key support around 60k and appears to be bouncing here. This is good news since it could imply a relief rally may be at hand.

However, it is too early to call for a rally because the price needs to break that resistance at 75k and turn it into support. Until then, tame your excitement and don’t get trapped into a possible fake breakout. It will likely be short lived and a trap set by market makers to open new shorts before they send BTC into lower lows.

That’s because if the price falls below this wedge later on (below 60k), this will get very ugly, very fast. I lean bearish long term since I don’t think this bear market ends at 60k. We will likely see new lows later and I’ll explain why using the next two charts. If so, the key area of interest will be between 50k and 30k.

Nevertheless, if bulls show up in numbers in the future, this bearish wedge has plenty of room to allow for a rally or even new record highs at 140k or 150k, depending where the price breaks from the apex.

Keep both these scenarios in your mind. Your ultimate goal should be to buy as much Bitcoin as possible. Don’t aim to trade it as the risk of losing it is not worth it long term.

2. Bullish and Bearish Sweeps

Price action needs no indicators. If you know how to read a price and chart, you’re already ahead of most traders and investors. This comes with time and the below will help you with that.

In a bullish market, whales or market makers will push the price down to liquidate or trigger stop losses before they reverse the price action towards new highs. We call these bullish sweeps (or long sweeps since longs are meant to be liquidated).

In a bearish market, like today, market makers will push the price up to liquidate shorts before they nuke the price lower. This is reflected on the chart as a bearish sweep (or short sweep). See the red and green dots for more examples on Bitcoin below.

The idea is simple, before market makers expose their true intentions for the price, they aim to access the deep liquidity offered by areas on the chart where most people place stop losses or where liquidations are clustered.

Therefore, before Bitcoin can go higher, the aim of market makers is to access that liquidity where most longs will be liquidated. To do that, they need to push the price into a lower low first. Unfortunately, the Bitcoin chart does not show such a patter today. There are no long sweeps, only short sweeps.

In a bear market, the price will make a higher high to trigger shorts liquidations. That’s a clear short sweep and the recent price action by Bitcoin supports that case. Once the liquidity is drained, market makers are free to send the price to new lows.

For most retails users, these mechanics are not very intuitive because market makers operate at a different level. Due to their size and power to push the price, they need to access liquidity to secure profits before they push the price the other way. They can only do that if they can farm retail by triggering liquidations or stop losses.

3. How to Scout for a Top or Bottom?

Now that we’ve covered the bullish and bearish sweeps we can move on to the next chart that shows the aggressiveness from market makers. This can be measured by the angle of the patterns.

As you can notice on the below chart, the closer we get to a top or bottom, the more aggressive the angle of each sweep pattern. No surprise then, that we’re getting more aggressive the lower Bitcoin goes from 10° degrees to 40° degrees today.

This is bearish.

To turn bullish you’d want the angle to reduce in aggressiveness as the price falls or to see a bullish sweep. This is not yet the case. Therefore, it is too early to turn bullish here. Those that go long may soon be trapped while shorts are stopped out.

During the rally from 2023 to 2025, the bullish sweeps increased in angles gradually until a top was found during a bearish sweep at 10° degrees. That in itself was also a bearish signal that a top is in.

To buy the coming bottom, aim to scout for a bullish sweep and buy every time the price makes new lows. Those will be prime buy areas before the price snaps back up and moves into a sustained bull market again.

Last tips

The price of Bitcoin is at a key crossroad today. A break under 60k would send it quickly to new lows and likely a bottom during this bear market. We’re not there yet, but the signs point to this as being the higher possibility based on existing data.

In markets, you need to think in probabilities. Nothing is certain, but the charts can move the edge in your favor if you know how to read them, not predict them. Bitcoin can easily go to 80k during this bearish sweep before new lows, so watch out for that.

Lastly, market makers will play with your emotions to their advantage. Plus they know your liquidation points. If you are predictable, the price will hunt you down before it shows its true intentions.

Good luck and hope the above will boost your edge! Like, share, and subscribe for more alpha in the future.

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Several altcoins are showing promise after a brutal correction. If you want to get exposure to the market, this may be a good time to consider it for a quick win.

In this update, I’ll share my thoughts on Bitcoin as usual and my top three altcoins I have my eyes on right now. Let’s start!

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Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

BTC TLDR: Bitcoin is about to attempt a second rally to the 75k resistance. If it manages to break above it, things are going to look bullish for a while with 90k as the next major target.

Bitcoin pumped by $3,000 when Trump announce the ceasefire and painted a nice bullish candle on the daily timeframe. If this weekly candle closes like today, or even better above the 75k resistance, we will have a major rally ahead of us.

This is turning me quite bullish in the short to medium turn. But I need to see confirmation with a clear break above the 75k resistance first. I don’t think we will need to wait long for that to happen if this momentum is sustained.

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If Bitcoin can clear 75k, then watch the price rally to 90k next. That will be a major resistance zone until about 100k. Don’t think it will go higher than that on first try. Follow the price, don’t try to predict it.

The market has been begging for a relief rally and we might just get it now. We’re long overdue for one and altcoins also stand to benefit greatly when that happens. More on that next.

If you’re turning bullish like me, it’s time to pay attention and get positioned. I see several charts showing great promise in the altcoin space. My focus is on momentum coins, those alts that can run 50% or more in quick succession.

That’s because you want to get massive gains in a short amount of time since we do not know how long this relief rally will last once it gets going.

Aim to be aggressive in taking profits so that you don’t give back the gains to the market if it decides to turn later on.

I’m also sharing my private invite codes below on this new DEX I’m farming. Best of both worlds - trade alts while farming an airdrop. I wrote more on that in Alpha Post #87. Invites are limited: first come, first served.

Without further comment, let’s dive into some juicy alpha covering my Top 3 Altcoins right now!

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I believe we have six to twelve months before the real consequences of what is happening today will affect everyone in a very tangible way.

I summarize that into five key market trends below covering the US Dollar, inflation, Gold, Bitcoin, and stablecoins.

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Top 5 Market Trends You Need to Watch!

1. Dollar Rally Followed by High Inflation

The current uncertainty across the world is driven by the war in the Middle East which has created a short term rally in the US Dollar versus major currencies. That’s because many countries are being squeezed as they now have to pay twice as much in US dollars for the same barrel of oil.

This has pushed the dollar higher and even crashed Gold by over 25% as central banks are selling it to get immediate liquidity during this time. However, this is a short term impact. The longer term impact will be far worse.

As long as the price of oil sits around $100 or higher, that will translate into everything costing between 10% to 30% more. That means high inflation, again. Key driving forces include supply shocks, disruptions in logistics, and higher energy prices. This may end up as Covid 2.0.

What will governments do to address this crisis?

Print more money.

As it happens, the weakest economies are hurt first. For example, the Philippine peso crashed to its lowest level vs the US dollar. Same for Turkey and many other countries.

Eventually, this inflationary spiral will return to the US Dollar once it circulates across the global economy. The world can only take this much beating before the dollar also has to inflate and devalue again.

If you hold USD, expect it to be worth much less by 2027. Time to move to the second trend.

2. Petrodollar Under Pressure, More Inflation

Another reason why the US Dollar is going to be under huge inflationary pressure in the future is related to the petrodollar mechanism. Most of the world has to buy USD before they can buy oil. Short term, a high oil price is bullish for the dollar.

But long term, nations will look for alternatives.

This is why Iran blocks anyone in the Strait of Hormuz from shipping oil, unless they pay in Yuan instead of dollars. This is also why Iran bombed every country in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) like UAE, with Dubai as a prime target.

That’s because GCC countries take only dollars in exchange for their oil, then park those dollars into the US stock market or its arms industry. The GCC accounts for 22% of the worlds oil production.

If the GCC can’t pump out oil for dollars, the demand for USD falls even more. This is again inflationary long term and bad news for USD holders since they will get diluted even more.

It’s also bad news for the US stock market and its magnificent seven that lead the AI race like Nvidia, Google or Microsoft. If the GCC countries no longer park their oil dollars in the US or into the AI narrative, a crash awaits. NASDAQ is already down 10% in 2026.

Right now, the GCC countries have more pressing needs at home like rebuilding their oil infrastructure, than speculate on AI technology. This war already went on for too long and even Trump knows it because the US stock market is starting to curve down.

Trump will do whatever it takes to stop the downtrend and reverse this drop. If the GCC won’t buy more US stocks, guess what can replace that?

Printing even more dollars.

Now that we’ve established why inflation is about to hit us hard, it’s time to look at Gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against this inevitable dilution.

3. Gold Correction Followed by a New Rally

The current selloff in Gold won’t last. That’s a given if you expect high inflation in the future. The liquidity crunch was short lived and whoever wanted to sell Gold most likely did it already.

Still, Gold will need more time to complete its current corrective move. But by 2027, I’d expect Gold to return on a clear uptrend. This will be pretty much guaranteed if inflation kicks in hard across the world.

If you’re looking to buy more Gold, use the second half of 2026 to your advantage. Normally, the market should give us an excellent entry in that period, particularly if the war in the Middle East continues and escalates. Panic is always a prime buy moment.

Eventually, that panic will move money back into safety assets, like Gold, after liquidity needs are satisfied. Bitcoin should follow a similar pattern. More on that next.

4. Bitcoin Correction to Continue Until End of 2026

I am bearish on Bitcoin this year. That’s because I believe we’re about half way in, timewise, into this bear market. We still have at least six months or more left to go before a real reversal takes place.

As it happens, that reversal will likely start as soon as countries start panicking about inflation again in 2027. Until then, prepare to buy discounts.

A price under 50k for one Bitcoin is going to be a steal years from now. Therefore, if you plan to buy more, start anywhere below that level. I see 30k as a more pessimistic bottom for Bitcoin which seems unlikely, but still possible.

Either way, don’t miss this coming window of opportunity. Until then, stack cash and wait for your triggers to hit. Then buy hard. I’ll aim to buy as much BTC and Gold as I can later this year.

5. The Fall of Altcoins and Rise of Stablecoins

Going into the next crypto cycle, I can see altcoins lose much of their appeal. That’s because this past cycle was a total disaster for 99% of people holding altcoins.

The altcoin inflation, much of it driven by Solana, killed the concept of “altcoin season”. Few altcoins delivered (like HYPE), while a majority ended up crashing by over 90%.

If you’ve been around crypto for more than four years, you should have long moved away from altcoins and replaced them with a clear focus on Bitcoin accumulation. That will keep you solvent and make you rich over time.

However, there is one type of altcoin that is thriving:

• Stablecoins

The total market cap of stablecoins is now over $300 billion and has led to a new concept called neobanks. These are digital-only financial institutions operating without physical branches that blend traditional finance with crypto.

Simply put, you can instantly send USDT or USDC around the globe now at near zero costs. Neobanks aim to capture that market and offer in/out ramps for crypto folks.

A recent example is Hyperbeat that allows you to earn on your stablecoins, borrow against crypto assets while linking all that to a card for real life spending.

You can also deposit/withdraw directly from your bank.

As the space matures, neobanks will become ubiquitous. Even X plans to integrate a payment system into their app and link it to a card and everything else you may need.

If you want to make money in the altcoin business, best to invest in companies that are leading on the stablecoins front like Tether or Circle. Problem here is that these are still private enterprises, but may IPO in the future.

Note that USD stablecoins will lose their value over time and are a poor hold compared to Bitcoin or Gold. That’s why you should only hold these short term for spending / consumption purposes. Your wealth should always be kept in hard money.

With neobanks taking over, borrowing and spending against your BTC or Gold will require just a few clicks while you maintain full custody over your assets. That should be your ultimate goal.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Yes. Volatility is a dream for traders. If you plan to trade this, I got good news that will make you eligible for a juicy airdrop.

There’s a new decentralized exchange that just entered the picture. You need to add it to your shortlist and farm it. If you missed Hyperliquid, Lighter, Aster or Grvt, then this is for you.

But before that, let me talk a bit about Bitcoin and Gold.

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Latest Bitcoin & Gold Price Forecast

BTC TLDR: Bitcoin tried to break above the 75k resistance, but was sharply rejected. This is bearish. If the price falls under the 60k support, expect 50k and lower.

I had hoped that Bitcoin could break that 75k resistance to take us into a sustained relief rally towards 90k. Unfortunately, the macro events are too bearish to allow it. Even Gold has crashed over 20% since its recent top.

In these conditions, the bias remains bearish and attention is shifting towards the key support levels at 68k, 65k and 60k. If the last one falls, then new lows will follow and you should prepare to accumulate more Bitcoin once that happens.

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Gold TLDR: The parabolic rally has ended. Expect a correction/consolidation move for some time between 3k-4k. Afterwards, new highs are likely in late 2026 and beyond.

This crash in Gold prices is the fastest on record with nine consecutive days in red. Considering the macro, you’d expect it to go higher. However, this price action shows panic selling to access liquidity since global markets are under stress.

The actual panic will start when the stock market crashes as well. NASDAQ is already down 10%. The macro is primed for a major crash which will also pull down Gold. At that moment, I’d buy Gold hard. Key levels on the chart with the 3k to 4k zone as a great area to accumulate. Lowest it could go is 2.8k I’d say.

A higher price is pretty much guaranteed later on if the war in the Middle East continues, inflation picks-up, and the stock market falls. I’d definitely consider buying any Gold discounts in such an environment.

This ongoing volatility will filter weak hands, but Gold has been a strong performer in similar times, like the 1970s when we had another energy crisis. I lean bearish until late 2026, but bullish thereafter. Make good use of this time.

It’s hard to get excited about anything in this market right now. However, behind the scenes, there is a new decentralized exchange that caught my attention due to its pedigree and backing.

They do everything Hyperliquid does with lower fees and it’s a prime place to farm a future airdrop! DEXes are one of the few real use cases in crypto that will never go away.

As money rotates between DEXes, you should too. Let’s start.

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The first signal was Bitcoin which stopped falling at 60k. Now, key altcoins are also ready to pump.

Let’s take a closer look at Bitcoin first, then dive into my Top 5 Altcoins this week.

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Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: Bitcoin bottomed at 60k, at least for now, and is flirting with the 75k resistance which is likely to break if bulls test it again. That would push BTC into a sustained relief rally.

Buyers tested the resistance at 75k three times to date, but were rejected. However, the more this level is tested, the more likely it will eventually break. This is why I interpret this price action as bullish.

Moreover, since Bitcoin has been bearish since October 2025, we’re long overdue for a significant relief rally before new lows become possible. Therefore, my bias in the short-term is bullish, while long-term I expect bears to attempt new lows.

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The key support remains at 60k and if the resistance at 75k breaks, then bulls have a good shot to take Bitcoin between 82k and 98k. That area may revert any relief rally since sellers will emerge again as the price approaches 100k.

I’d look for longs if the price breaks above 75k and start shorting once it approaches 100k. Just be mindful that the global geopolitical context is rather volatile so things can change in an instant.

Long term, just focus on accumulating as much Bitcoin as possible since in a few years a price under 100k would be a dream. Now let’s move to the Top 5 Altcoins this week!

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Top 5 Altcoins This Week!

One of the best performers since late January has been Hyperliquid. Its price is already up by over 80% from the $20 low to around $37 at the time of this post.

Why do I mention HYPE?

Because HYPE is an early mover and shows where the market is headed before the rest follow. It was the first to dump before the market turned bearish in September 2025 and is the first to pump now.

I expect other key altcoins to follow and pump soon as well.

Here are the Top 5 Altcoins I have my eyes on right now.

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The thesis was straightforward: on-chain derivatives exchanges generate real fee revenue regardless of market direction, they don’t need a bull market to function, and the best ones reward early users before the broader crowd catches on.

In the past, I highlighted Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter as some of the names worth paying attention to. The feedback was good, but a lot of you asked the same follow-up question: are there any left with a pre-TGE window still open?

This article will answer that question.

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The honest answer is that most of the obvious ones have already launched their tokens. Hyperliquid is now a $10B+ project. Lighter had its moments. If you were early, great. If not, those particular windows are closed.

But there’s one that hasn’t launched yet and it’s worth a serious look precisely because of what it offers beyond just being another perp exchange.

That’s Grvt

Pronounced “gravity”

This isn’t a “buy before the airdrop” article. The pre-TGE timing is a bonus. The more interesting story is that Grvt is taking a different angle from what I covered in the past, one focused on real trader experience. In a market where returns are hard to find, that distinction matters.

Grvt is a hybrid derivatives exchange with centralized performance and speed, on-chain settlement, and self-custody. Think Binance’s trading experience with a security model closer to a DEX. It’s live, it’s functional, and the token hasn’t launched yet.

Here are five reasons that sets it apart.

This article is published in partnership with Grvt, the exchange designed to pay you! Open an account to farm up to 11% APY!

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1. Smart Order Execution Turns Fees Into Revenue

Most retail traders bleed fees without thinking about it. You hit market orders, you pay taker fees, it compounds quietly against your PnL over time. In a bull market, nobody notices. In a bear market, it’s a slow drain you can’t afford.

The structural fix is to trade like a market maker, not a market taker. When you place limit orders that sit on the orderbook, you’re providing liquidity, and on Grvt, the exchange pays you a rebate when those orders fill. Instead of paying to trade, you’re getting paid to trade (see image).

Hyperliquid ran this model early on and shut it down. Grvt still has it, and for a trader thinking about total return rather than just entry and exit prices, that’s a meaningful edge. Every filled limit order is a small credit back to your account. Across dozens of trades, that compounds.

The strategic implication: if you have a price target in mind anyway, there’s rarely a reason to chase with a market order. Set the limit, let it fill, collect the rebate. Same position, better economics.

2. Let Your Capital Earns While You Trade

This is probably Grvt’s most interesting feature and one that’s still rare in crypto.

On most exchanges, trading collateral sits idle. On Grvt, it doesn’t. Your deposited stablecoin is yield-generating while simultaneously serving as margin, currently earning up to 11% APY.

In practice: deposit USDC, open a futures position, and your margin continues to work for you the entire time.

Later in March, this will becomes even more powerful with the integration of Aave, adding a new trustless DeFi yield source to the Unified Margin framework. The infrastructure expands, but the core principle remains the same: your capital should never sit still.

One strategy worth considering is a delta-neutral setup, going long and short in equal size to neutralize price exposure, while collecting yield on your margin and funding fees from the trade. It’s not risk-free (execution quality, funding rate shifts, and liquidation risk are real), but in flat or ranging markets, the structure can tilt the math in your favor.

3. Self-Custody: You Actually Own Your Assets

After FTX, this shouldn’t need to be said, but apparently it still does.

Grvt settles trades on-chain via an Ethereum Layer-2, meaning your funds aren’t sitting in a centralized black box. Trade settlement, margin management, and withdrawals all happen on-chain. You retain custody.

What makes this more practical than most self-custody setups is the mobile app they recently launched. Self-custody on most DEXs means juggling wallets, browser extensions, and clunky interfaces, Grvt wraps the entire experience into one app.

Trading, margin management, yield tracking, and withdrawals are all there, with the on-chain security running in the background without you having to think about it. For anyone who manages positions on the go, that’s a meaningful quality-of-life upgrade over the typical CEX app that gives you convenience but holds your funds hostage.

4. One Account. Every Market. Zero Opportunity Cost.

It’s long been the norm for trading activity to be scattered across different venues, different asset classes demand different platforms, and different strategies often require different infrastructure entirely. Every time you switch, you’re dealing with separate margin pools, separate fee structures, and separate apps. Capital that’s sitting in the wrong place when an opportunity hits is capital that’s working against you.

Grvt is built around collapsing that fragmentation.

Gold is trading on Grvt right now, and the timing couldn’t be better. Gold has been one of the clearest macro trades of the past year, hitting all-time highs as investors rotate out of risk assets.

Traders who wanted exposure had to go through a separate brokerage or settle for a gold-backed token with its own counterparty risk. On Grvt, it’s a single order from your existing account.

Equities are live too. The S&P 500 has been one of the most resilient assets over the past decade regardless of macro conditions.

And several of its most actively traded constituents are already on Grvt: Tesla, Intel, Robinhood, with more being added.

But the point is that the foundation is already there, and you can trade all of it from the mobile app. One account, one margin pool, every opportunity, whether it’s a crypto breakout at 3am or a macro move in gold during the London open.

5. The Airdrop: A Bonus, Not the Thesis

I want to be clear here: if Grvt’s product wasn’t interesting on its own, the airdrop wouldn’t be worth your time. Bear market airdrops from weak products have a poor track record.

But because the underlying exchange has real utility, especially the unified margin and maker rebates, the airdrop becomes a legitimate bonus on top of an already functional platform.

Here’s how points accumulate:

• Trading activity (taker and maker volume)

• Capital deposits and yield farming

• Open interest contribution

• Referrals

• A 5x point multiplier on altcoin markets (excluding BTC, ETH and SOL)

  

The team has confirmed an AMA next week where more details on the token are expected to be disclosed. Worth tuning in before positioning.

The Bottom Line

Bear markets reward capital efficiency over speculation. The traders who compound through a down cycle aren’t the ones waiting for the next narrative. They’re the ones extracting yield from their margin, reducing fee drag on every trade, and positioning early in infrastructure that has a real shot at mattering when volume returns.

Grvt sits at the intersection of all three. The product is functional today, the economics are real, and the pre-TGE window is still open. None of that guarantees anything. It’s a young platform, and the token timeline remains fluid. But as a place to put active capital to work while the broader market figures itself out, the case is there.

The AMA next week will likely answer a lot of the outstanding questions on the token side. That’s probably the right moment to form a fuller picture before deciding how deep to go.

Open Grvt Account!

If you’ve tried Grvt or have questions about any of the strategies mentioned, drop them in the comments.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

I’m talking about stablecoins dominance.

When the market is bullish, stablecoin dominance falls because everyone wants to capture the next pump and they buy various coins. On the other hand, when the market is bearish, everyone is running to safety and sells their coins for stables. This pushes their dominance up, like today.

Let’s have a closer look next.

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In early February, I covered 10 charts that can help you find a bottom. This one is close to number 9 on that list, but with a twist.

You can add up all the biggest stablecoins together to get a comprehensive view of the overall stablecoin liquidity in the market. For the purposes of this article we will use USDT and USDC as seen below.

If you want to create the above chart, simply open the search bar for symbols in TradingView and type this: CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D+CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D

As you can see below, the stablecoin dominance has moved above 11% after breaking away at 8%. That breakout happened just after the BTC top in October 2025. That was a key signal to sell and stay in cash.

The first major resistance of this rally is at 15%, still some distance away from today’s levels. This tells us a few things already:

• The Bitcoin bottom is not in, we have to wait a few more months at least

• The search for a bottom is accelerating based on this price action

• Once a bottom is found, reversal can take at least six months to materialize

Therefore, you should not rush to buy here. This chart, like the others I covered in the past, suggest that it is too early to do so now. At the same time, there is no guarantee the stablecoin dominance will stop at 15% or 16%.

Nevertheless, those levels coincide with a key demand area that is likely to reverse the current downtrend in Bitcoin’s price. Since more and more people are sitting in cash, they will eventually be tempted to deploy it if the price is low enough.

I still believe the area between 50k and 30k is a prime buy zone. However, what we’re missing in this bear market is a clear relief rally. It’s been a non-stop downtrend for almost six months.

In previous cycles, even if we had a bear market, we still got a month or two of bullish price action. This may be expected somewhere after March with a bottom forming as we approach October. This scenario assumes new lows in the second half of 2026.

We will probably have a good idea where this market is going by the start of summer. Hopefully we get a nice relief rally until then as the alternative is quite bleak, but may bring about a bottom faster.

I don’t believe we have reached max pain yet across the markets. That stage is still ahead of us and this BTC/Gold chart may hint at it. Bitcoin can fall almost 30% more against Gold before a bottom. That will surely reach max pain levels.

Exciting times ahead if you plan to top up your Bitcoin bag. Whatever you do, don’t get scared. That’s how the whales shake the coins from your hands and put them in their pocket. Then they send this market to new highs. Don’t fall for that trap.

Stay optimistic.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

To do so, I recommend using 3 protocols to compound your cash! Keep reading to find all about it plus a bonus activity for all YCC members!

Important: YCC subscriptions will be updated as of March 1st. If you’re on the fence about a paid subscription, this is your opportunity to lock in the best price at $7.5 per month (yearly plan). Just click on the below button!

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

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Make Money in a Bear Market with These 3 Protocols!

1. Hyperliquid HLP Vault

The Hyperliquid HLP vault is the undisputed king to farm yields in a bear market. That’s because this vault pays best in a bear market: the more traders get liquidated, the more profits you’ll make by depositing cash (USDC) in this vault.

Let’s have a look at its historic returns first (source).

As you can see, only in this January deposits in the vault returned a 6.33% yield, more than other protocols do in a year! That’s huge and miles above US treasuries (4%) or DeFi rates like AAVE (1.5% to 5%).

And the year just started.

If you’re bearish, expect more market turmoil in the future which will lead to more liquidations = profits for the vault. That means this vault will continue to perform well above market rates. In 2025, the yearly yield was over 15%. In 2024, it was even higher at over 30%!

This vault is not without risks, of course. You can see in the table two months with negative returns. However, those are only two months out of 34 months!

I believe the risk/reward ratio is very attractive. No wonder over 380 million has been deposited in this vault.

If you got cash, this is a prime protocol to consider. Moreover, should Bitcoin drop under 50k later this year, you only need to withdraw from the vault and buy BTC on Hyperliquid’s spot market. Flawless and easy.

You can then withdraw the BTC to your cold wallet on the native chain (see image below). You won’t get anything better than this.

2. Flui.io

Fluid is like AAVE, but with additional features, including integration with newer protocol like USDai. This USDai vault offers 9.4% APR right now. That’s over 2x the market rate!

You can also multiply your stablecoin yields by using leverage. As long as you trust the peg of paired stablecoins (like USDe), you can reach over 12-18% APY.

I don’t recommend using this when market is volatile since USDe could lose peg and that can trigger liquidations. Best to not be too greedy and keep your liquidation lower than max if you go for this. However, HLP is a better choice risk wise.

If you like safe and boring vaults following market rates, you can go with Spark 4% yield on USDC. Spark protocol will always offer you a stable rate close to US treasuries.

3. GMX.io

If you are not interested in farming stablecoins yields and want to keep exposure to BTC and ETH for example, you can consider the single pair vaults on GMX.

These yields are pretty solid all things considered since the ETH yield on AAVE is only 2%. On GMX its over 5%. On BTC, you will rarely find any yield over 2% without massive risks.

BONUS - Farm Valor Points on Legion!

This is how you can to boost your future airdrops and public sales!

As promised, we’ve partnered with Legion to bring the best opportunities to YCC members! This may include special sale allocations and airdrops to our community members in the future!

See here a list with previous sales by Legion.

To become eligible, log in to Legion with your Discord account and complete the YCC activities to accrue Valor Points (click Tunisia on the map). These points will increase your chances to get allocations/airdrops in the future via the Legion platform.

Start your conquest now and send your feedback either via a direct message to Duo or on the Legion Discord.

Let me know in the comments what is your favorite protocol to farm yields in 2026? Thanks for reading and good luck!

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Before that, I’ll take a look at Bitcoin and remind you that YCC subscriptions will be updated as of March 1st.

If you’re on the fence about a paid subscription, this is your opportunity to lock in the best price at $7.5 per month (yearly plan). Just click on the below button!

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Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: Bitcoin nuked in February and fell by over 20%! That sent the price to 60k before the current bounce. Even if we get a relief rally, I expect lower lows later this year.

A few days ago, I wrote an extensive post about where Bitcoin could bottom in 2026. The most promising area is between 50k and 30k, as highlighted on the chart by that circle in red.

I do not think Bitcoin bottomed at 60k. A simple check of the monthly MACD confirms this since that indicator is only starting to drop and has plenty of room left to go. Prepare accordingly and hoard cash to buy the bottom.

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I expect Bitcoin to bottom until October or latest by the end of the year. A good way to confirm that is to check the BTC/Gold chart I detailed in my above post already mentioned.

If you manage to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin under 50k later this year, you’re going to have a generational entry in the next five to ten years. Make the most of it if it comes to that.

Don’t be scared if that happens, deploy your cash by laddering limit buy orders from 50k to 30k or lower. Try to catch any wick down. You’ll be glad you did later.

Now let’s move to the Polymarket alpha.

This past week, Polymarket added a new crypto market for Bitcoin that resolves every five minutes! That allows for 12 trade an hour or 288 per day. Several bot developers literally made 100k or more within 24h since this market was launched.

In what follows, I’ll share a trading strategy that can print if executed well. You can book 10% to 50% profits in minutes.

The way it works is that every five minutes this market takes the start price of Bitcoin which becomes the target. If the price ends up above the target after five minutes those that bet on UP win. If the price ends below, those that bet on DOWN win.

In TradFi we call these binary options. You also have 15M, 1H, 4H, 1D options.

The winners take all and the losers lose their bet. This is why you want a high win rate over time and to cut your losses fast before the market expires if the price goes against you.

Since this resolves within five minutes, your time to act is short. But that is also an advantage since you are only exposed to the market for a few minutes at a time. If you ride the trends well, this is free money due to arbitrage opportunities.

Arbitrage opportunities means that Polymarket takes time to adjust to price action movements which allows you to take favorable positions and capitalize on the gap before it is closed.

Polymarket prices also have a small delay compared to live Bitcoin price action. This can be critical to success, but this delay will likely be reduced over time due to bots.

To start, all you need is a crypto wallet with USDC. Connect to Polymarket and make a USDC deposit. Use a cheap network like Arbitrum or Polygon for the deposit. Note that you will also need a few Polygon tokens for gas fees since Polymarket is build on top of the Polygon network. More deposit options below.

Note that if you connect from geo-blocked countries you will not be able to open an account. You can use a VPN, but you may risk your account being banned if so.

Next is my Polymarket strategy. You can also apply this to higher timed binary options like 1H and up. Let’s start printing!

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