It’s called the Bitcoin Realized Price.

This indicator never failed to provide an excellent entry during bear markets. Scroll down to start.

Trade any asset like Apple, Tesla, gold, or crypto without a broker on Canborsa DEX!

Up to 20x leverage. Non-custodial. No KYC. 24/7

Trade Now!

First, let’s start with the boring definition before we look at the chart and what it tells us. TLDR: Bitcoin never bottomed without trading below its realized price.

The current Bitcoin Realized Price is 53k

Any price under that level is a buy signal based on historical data. Ideally, you want to dollar-cost average (DCA) as soon as Bitcoin falls under that green line. You DCA until it climbs above it.

If you still have money left to buy at that point, you FOMO in.

This is how the data looks from previous cycles:

• 2011: BTC bottomed at $2.1, 58% below the Realized Price of $5

• 2015: BTC bottomed at $152, 49% below the Realized Price of $300

• 2018: BTC bottomed at $3.2k, 47% below the Realized Price of $6k

• 2022: BTC bottomed at $15.4k, 34% below the Realized Price of $23.3k

This pattern also shows that with each subsequent cycle, Bitcoin bottoms closer to the realized price. Consequentially, in this bear market, Bitcoin will likely bottom between 50k and 40k.

That’s around 24% under today’s realized price if Bitcoin find a bottom around 40k. In my previous posts, I argued the range between 50k and 30k is a prime buy area. This supports that case and may indicate a price under 40k is optimistic.

Another point worth mentioning is that with the exception of the COVID crash, Bitcoin stays for months under its realized price. Therefore, plenty of time to buy in and DCA. There is no rush and you want to capture the full move until the bottom.

Don’t FOMO in one go as soon as the price falls under the green line, give yourself time and margin to scale in.

If I were to guess for a prime time to do this, I’d place that period between the last quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Anywhere in that range you should get your prime entry.

I will of course update you as soon as this happens and revise this analysis.

What’s your current strategy to buy Bitcoin? Leave your best tips in the comments so others can benefit.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive alpha! All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Saylor only sold 32 Bitcoin, but it was enough to send the price crashing almost 10% this week. Considering his 840k BTC holding, this move cost him $6 billion.

With this news, it seems Bitcoin will find a bottom much sooner. Time to look at 5 key charts that will help you time the bottom. Scroll down.

Join the private beta of NADO to farm the next DEX airdrop! Limited invites available for YCC members.

Claim Invite

It was only a matter of time until Saylor’s financial alchemy called “Strategy” would lead him to sell Bitcoin. Not surprised to see him do this in the midst of a bear market.

He’s got bills to pay in the form of monthly yields to his preferred stock holders.

Since MicroStrategy generates no revenue on its Bitcoin holding, the yield can only come from one source.

Selling Bitcoin.

At this point, MSTR and its strategy smell like the biggest ponzi in crypto and mirrors the Terra Luna UST ponzi. I also posted about it here on X.

The problem is that when this pyramid will unravel, Bitcoin’s price will suffer, a lot. It already crashed 10% only on the idea that Saylor can and is willing to sell Bitcoin.

Still, this may provide a generational entry to buy more Bitcoin. Below, 5 charts to guide you in the coming months.

1. Bitcoin Price Chart

This is the third time Bitcoin formed an ascending channel only to break below it. This pattern was bearish from the start and I covered that in my Alpha Posts several times.

The expectation here is a re-test of the lows around 60k. It’s likely that support level won’t hold and Bitcoin will make new lows. If we measure the previous drop and add it to this last formation, the price lands exactly on 50k.

I believe a price around 50k and below is a trigger to dollar-cost average (DCA) into Bitcoin. The prime buy area is between 50k and 30k. We don’t know where Bitcoin will bottom, but I believe this drop may be the last one or second to last.

2. USDT Market Cap

In the past two weeks, the USDT market cap decreased by almost $2 billion. That’s liquidity that has left the crypto space. This is extremely bearish and a key signal in a bear market.

In the below chart, I’m presenting the USDT market cap MACD indicator on the monthly timeframe. The last time we had a bearish cross, the bear market lasted for another eight months before Bitcoin started to grind higher. That aligns with my expectations that 2026 remains a bearish year and bulls return in 2027.

Limiting the analysis to this chart, you want to wait as long as the USDT MACD histogram (the yellow bars) makes lower lows. As soon as that trend starts to reverse and the MACD histogram starts moving up again with higher lows, you want to start buying Bitcoin.

You can also speculate and buy earlier as soon as the histogram is losing momentum during its downtrend. That can be done by measuring the height of each monthly histogram bar. As soon as the difference between months falls and gets smaller, it’s a good signal to buy. That shows sellers are getting exhausted.

3. USDT + USDC Dominance

Another way to look at the market is to measure the dominance of USDC and USDC market caps vs all other crypto assets. In a bear market, the dominance of stablecoins increases as Bitcoin and other altcoins bleed lower.

As expected, this chart has been in an uptrend since late 2025 when the proper bear market started. Historically, this chart topped anywhere around 15%. At the time of this post, we’re around 11.5%. Still some room left to go.

You want to buy Bitcoin and other crypto assets when the stablecoin dominance hits a plateau like in 2022. Buying in that zone should provide an optimal risk/reward entry. Keep an eye on that 15% resistance, especially if it aligns with the other charts at the same time.

4. BTC/Gold Ratio

The Bitcoin & Gold ratio was one of the best indicators for this cycle top. It will likely also be a prime signal for the bottom. As you can see on the chart, we had a short relief rally between March and May and now the downtrend is resuming.

I’d expect new lows here similar to the Bitcoin price chart. Nevertheless, as soon as this ratio falls into the blue box it’s probably good to start DCA with orders going all the way down to 9.

The reason you want to buy into that box is because, in the past, that was the area where Bitcoin found support and started its next major bull market. However, there is no rush to buy since Bitcoin may stay in that box for months before it leaves.

5. Total Crypto Market Dominance

Notice how the chart on total crypto market dominance mirrors the BTC/Gold ratio. Same candle pattern. This is interesting and builds up confluence or confidence into this analysis.

Similarly, you want to speculate entries in the blue box. Wait for lower lows and then signs of sellers exhaustion (like the histogram point on USDT MACD above).

Either way, you can also use a time stop or limit. Regardless of where the Bitcoin price will land, you want to be a buyer in the last few months of 2026. That means a prime buy period could end up being October to December.

Alternatively, you can wait to buy in early 2027. By then, charts should look ready for a reversal and a new bull market. That works well if you aim to buy strength rather than speculate on the exact bottom.

Parting words

Which of the above charts is your favorite and why?

I aim to load up on Bitcoin later this year. If you plan to buy altcoins, it may also be a good opportunity, but notice that some alts like HYPE or ZEC had their own mini bull market in 2026 while everything else was in red.

Coins that already pumped will likely underperform once Bitcoin starts moving since they are in different market cycle. Make sure to judge each coin on its own individual chart before any macro bias you may have.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive alpha! All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

This week, we look at the Top 3 Altcoins I have my eyes on.

More on that soon, but first a look at Bitcoin.

Join my team to farm the second $CHIP airdrop from USD.AI!

Start Farming!

Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: This week, Bitcoin tested the 75k support level. This held well and could be a bullish re-test. However, to really turn bullish, the price needs to clear 85k and turn that into support.

At a macro level, Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend. The current ascending channel may look bullish on a short to medium timeframe, but if the price falls below it, then that’s a continuation of this bear market.

The current support at 75k held well and the price was helped by the US & Iran peace negotiations. Nevertheless, as long as Bitcoin sits in this channel, the expectations is an eventual breakdown. To change that, the price has to move above 85k.

Subscribe now

A price between 75k and 85k is more of a neutral zone from where Bitcoin can go either way. Wait for a clear move above or below these key levels. Once confirmed, we will know where Bitcoin is headed next. Best to be patient here.

Now let’s move to the alpha of this week.

Since last week, my call on Octra delivered a whooping 140% profit. Just look at the chart below. Subscribing to this newsletter costs $9 / month (yearly plan) and it only takes one piece of alpha to cover that plus much more.

Privacy is big in this cycle if we look at the Zcash or Monero pumps. Together, these two privacy coins gather $18 billion in market cap right now. Octra is still under $50 million and takes privacy to a whole new level!

I already explained the Octra fundamentals in the last alpha post. It only takes 1% of the profits from Zcash or Monero to find Octra and this will 10x from here. Octra could even be a 100x pump!

Time will tell, and you need to be patient with this if you want such returns.

Now let’s talk about this week’s Top 3 Altcoins!

Read more

Imagine AAVE or Uniswap, but encrypted end-to-end and self-contained within its own confidential on-chain execution environment.

The confidentiality goes beyond the chain itself. Such DeFi protocols can be private and encrypted even from the network itself or its validators. Then add AI agents operating or using such apps while everything stays encrypted.

This is not something in the future, it’s available today! Scroll down to find more about it, but first an update about Bitcoin.

Join my team to farm the second $CHIP airdrop from USD.AI!

Start Farming!

Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: Everyone got excited seeing Bitcoin above 80k, but it was a trap! The price reversed course and is now on its way to test the 75k support. If that fails to hold, expect new lows later on.

The pump at the end of this week was a prime short opportunity and a trap set by market makers to trap FOMO buyers. This was very evident on the HYPE chart and I flagged it at that point on X.

While everyone got excited seeing Bitcoin above 80k, the price was still in a bearish channel, as presented on the below chart. As soon as Bitcoin reached its upper limit, sellers returned.

Subscribe now

This price action should not be surprising since it respects the macro trend. Bitcoin already completed and broke down from two similar patterns since late 2025. This would be the third, and perhaps, the last time it happens before Bitcoin finds a bottom.

If Bitcoin fall under the 75k support, expect new lows in the coming months. Anything between 50k to 30k is a buy area in my book and I am patiently waiting for that moment. Invalidation of this bias is a price above this last channel.

Be patient. Stack cash for that buy opportunity. It’s coming.

It’s not often that I see an asymmetric opportunity in the market. But this one qualifies and I FOMOed into it with my ETH bag.

The reason is pretty straightforward.

Instead of holding Ethereum which may not do more than a 2x in the foreseeable future, I’d rather hold something that has higher risk, but can deliver a 10x or more by next year.

Go big or go home!

Before sharing that alpha, here is an update on the pmalt vault I shilled in my last newsletter which is public for all to read. Our members printed on this and was an easy way to make the yearly YCC subscription for this newsletter on that alpha alone!

I deposited $5,000 in that vault to test it, and since then, it booked over $630 in profit, or a return of 12% in less than a month. At the current APR rate, you’d more than double your money in a year.

Now lets move to the alpha of this week. If you love the privacy meta, this one is for you!

Read more

The space is maturing and the yield opportunities are multiplying, but not all are created equal.

In this article, I’ll present two yield farming examples you should add to your watchlist. They are already competitive today and will likely become a top choice in a bull market.

The first example is a more classic approach to yield generation, but the second is quite exotic, yet deserves much needed attention considering its huge returns. Let’s start!

Join the private beta of NADO to farm the next DEX airdrop! Limited invites available for YCC members.

Claim Invite

1. Liminal - limUSD

This is a yield-bearing token like sUSDai that grows in value over time based on its APY performance. Check it out at this link!

Liminal is a Hyperliquid ecosystem protocol that farms delta neutral yields (funding fees) across the most popular coins listed on the Hyperliquid exchange. While this worked well in a bull market, yields have fallen in a bear market.

Plus, delta neutral strategies are quite an advance trading technique to farm funding fees and it’s hard to attract retail with that. This is why Liminal developed the xTokens, like xHYPE.

Instead of users managing an active delta neutral strategy, Liminal simplified this process with the xTokens where the strategy is automated and users only have to hold the xTokens (e.g. xHYPE or xBTC) to get the underlying yield from funding fees.

Now, they went one step further and introduced limUSD.

limUSD will automatically allocate deposited funds across their xTokens chasing yields. Moreover, when funding fees are negative or low, the protocol can re-allocate funds to money markets, staking or TradFi (treasury yields). This keeps yields competitive and protects users against negative funding rates.

In this sense, Liminal acts as a vault curator or strategy manager. This is why they charge a 10% performance fee on any APY generated by the limUSD token. The funds will likely be distributed across a number of yield avenues to spread risk and maximize returns.

limUSD is natively available on HyperEVM, Ethereum, Arbitrum and soon Solana and you can mint it against USDC, USDT0 or USDH on this page. Then all you have to do is hold the token to accrue the yield. You can also bridge limUSD across networks at no cost (except gas fees).

There is no fee to mint limUSD. However, if you want to redeem to stablecoins there is a 0.3% fee for instant redemptions that goes to limUSD holders based on the available liquidity buffer. Alternatively, you can wait 7 days for zero fee redemptions.

With that said, lets move to the next example which is more exotic, but has 10x the returns! What?! Scroll down.

2. Hyperliquid - What is the Best Vault?

The best APR may be misleading, that’s why we look at the Sharpe ratio too.

When Hyperliquid launched, they introduced public vaults where anyone could deploy a trading strategy and attract deposits if they were successful. Opening a vault used to be free, but now it has a fee of $10,000.

This new fee has created a huge filter that only attracts professional vault managers that know what they are doing since nobody wants to burn 10k with a few clicks. This has both reduced the number of vaults and boosted their quality by quite a margin.

When you measure a vault performance, it’s not enough to look at raw APR or TVL. For example, in the above image the drkmttr vault has an APR of 635%, but that comes with a big caveat.

In the period December 2025 - April 2026, the vault had a max drawdown of 159% with no positive returns, unless you were lucky to enter at the bottom. Plus two depositors own $4.5M of the total TVL. For these reasons, this vault is high risk in my opinion, despite its excellent recent performance.

A good vault strategy should reduce max drawdown and show a steady gain over time, despite any intra-day or weekly volatility. This can also be measured using the Sharpe ratio.

The Sharpe ratio tells you how smooth the ride or line is to the upside (see the PNL line above). The higher the Sharpe the less bumps on the road (or less drawdowns). Ideally you want a Sharpe above 1 and definitely above zero since it can also go negative. Below a scale:

• < 1.0: Poor/Sub-optimal

• 1.0 – 1.99: Good/Acceptable

• 2.0 – 2.99: Very Good

• > 3.0: Excellent/Outstanding

The drkmttr vault has a Sharpe of 0.52, meaning its high performance has high drawdowns. Not ideal long term. Short term, it may be good to capitalize on its performance since this month it returned over 52% or 635% annualized! Crazy.

Naturally, we then ask ourselves the following question.

What is the vault with the best Sharpe on Hyperliquid?

• It’s called pmalt and its Sharpe is 3.34!

That’s almost unbelievable, yet this vault has been ongoing for over 571 days. Check the PNL line below, it’s a steady uptrend with minor fluctuations. That makes the Sharpe high. It’s current APR is 89% or 10x higher than Liminal’s limUSD.

The max drawdown on this vault is 1.88% in the past year. Below is a comparison of the two vaults: drkmttr and pmalt. Long term, pmalt is superior.

The pmalt vault APR can vary from 50% to over 100%. From a risk perspective, its Sharpe ratio is amazing, and the strategy is working great. That does not mean things can’t change in the future!

However, the vault operates a delta neutral / pair trading strategy which keeps drawdowns low since it makes a profit on any direction in the markets. I believe the vault is farming mean reversion and divergences between pairs.

Since the strategy is naturally hedged, even the October 10th 2025 crash did not impact it much. On the contrary, it is one of the few vaults that made good money on that day.

The pmalt vault manager can be followed on X at this link and I suggest you follow them if you plan to make a deposit. I believe this vault will become a top 10 one in due time.

Note that there is a cap in vault deposits since the leader has to own at least 5% of the total TVL. Hence if the cap is hit, the leader needs to deposit more to increase the cap and allow new deposits. This makes vault operators have skin in the game.

Another vault that does well in a bullish market is the one called Long Hype & BTC | Short Garbage. I recommend this vault if you’re bullish on HYPE. If HYPE is in a correction/downtrend, avoid it.

You can check the individual vault stats on this page or compare them, simply enter the vault name in the search bar and you can select it. Then scroll down for the vault stats by timeframe.

Let me know in the comments if you’re using any Hyperliquid vaults and how that went for you to date.

Like, share, and subscribe - thanks for reading!

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive alpha! All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

You can withdraw to your US and/or EU bank accounts instantly, up to $10 million. US wires, ACH or SEPA for Euro withdrawals with no markup.

This is probably the best route available in crypto if you want to avoid centralized exchanges like Coinbase during your on/off-ramps. Intrigued? Scroll down for more after I take a look at Bitcoin and what I’m currently farming!

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: Bitcoin nearly touched 80k before sellers returned to push back, sending the price to the 75k support level. So far, that support held well and bulls may prepare a new attempt at breaking 80k.

After Bitcoin bottomed at 60k, the price entered a relief rally which could well go to 85k and still maintain a bearish bias long term. If you look at the chart, you can see the bearish channel in red. This is the third one since the top at 126k.

The expectation here is that 85k will likely stop any rally and send Bitcoin towards new lows. Only if 85k turns into a support with new highs around 100k would Bitcoin have a chance at ending this bear market.

Become a Member!

For now, the short term bias remains bullish, but as soon as the price hits that 85k wall, it’s best to tame your expectations since sellers may return in force to send Bitcoin towards a final bottom in this bear market.

I believe any price under 50k is a prime buy area and I recommend stacking cash for that moment. It can happen at any time in the second half of this year. If by the end of 2026, BTC still didn’t make new lows under 60k, it’s probably best to buy whatever price you get.

Before I dive into this week’s alpha let me share with you what I am farming at the moment:

• USDai - Season 2 Airdrop

The first USDai airdrop (Season 1) was solid with the CHIP token doing a quick 3x after it was credited in our wallets. I sold above 10 cents and posted about it publicly on X and on our Discord. That’s a great return for our participating members!

If you want to join me for the Season 2 airdrop, use this invite and add liquidity on these Fluid or Curve sUSDai/USDC pools. You only need USDC on Arbitrum to deposit into the pools and you’ll earn 6-10% APY on your money while farming the next airdrop.

The full list of opportunities to farm allo points in Season 2 can be seen here.

• NADO - Decentralized Exchange Airdrop

After Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter airdrops, the next major decentralized exchange that is worth farming is called NADO and it’s still in private mode. You need an invite to join in early and I still have a few invites left. Claim them here.

If you like to trade and also farm an airdrop at the same time, this is the way! Don’t miss on this opportunity. The fees on NADO are even lower than Hyperliquid and I wrote more about it here as well.

Now let’s move to this week’s alpha: how to withdraw stablecoins to your bank account with no fees or centralized exchanges. You won’t find a better deal in crypto right now - that includes deposits from your bank!

Read more

Since the rsETH exploit, AAVE incurred over $200 million in bad debt and lost more than $10 billion in TVL as everyone rushed for the exits.

AAVE’s reputation and trust are compromised to the level that it is now fighting for its very survival. At the time of writing this, there is no solution to its bad debt problem and billions in assets are still stuck on their platform with users unable to withdraw.

This is what we call a black swan event in crypto. As a central nexus in DeFi, AAVE impacted everyone. Where next from here? I got a few suggestions below.

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

How AAVE became compromised?

If you missed the events around AAVE and the rsETH exploit, I encourage you to read this long tweet I made that went viral. It gives a good overview. TLDR below.

Since this started, more than three days ago, AAVE lost over $10 billion in TVL across its core Ethereum markets, which were the most affected by the exploit. For example, their USDT market went from $4.5 billion to $2 billion as of today.

With AAVE on silent mode, it’s unlikely things will change any times soon as more and more liquidity leaves their platform. This impacted most of their markets as people look for alternatives. More on that soon.

The irony here is that AAVE became the biggest loser, even if the exploit itself had nothing to do with them directly. Their exposure to rsETH became critical because they allowed a risky asset to be collateral. Some say it was listed by AAVE due to a conflict of interest.

Worse, they allowed hundreds of millions to be borrowed against such an asset. Therefore, the hacker was quick to take advantage of this. Since all markets were impacted, AAVE users that never heard or touched rsETH were also affected.

How this will end, nobody knows. There are too many affected stakeholders involved and they appear to be lawyering up instead of cooperating to find a settlement that can benefit users.

Even AAVE put this loss on their users instead of coming up with a clear plan on how to mitigate this huge oversight in their governance and risk management. If you’re still using AAVE, I recommend to reconsider, and look at the below alternatives.

1. Fluid

They innovated while others stalled.

Fluid is a relatively new entrant into the lending markets at just under $1 billion in TVL. Their advantage is in their agility and eagerness to innovate in the lending space while others lag behind.

For example, soon after the AAVE crisis started, Fluid created an AAVE collateral swap that allowed trapped users on AAVE to sell their ETH positions and exit impacted markets at negligible cost.

This is because Fluid has ETH loops on AAVE and this swap allowed them to unwind their positions, reduce their exposure, and give users a way out. A win-win.

Another advantage of Fluid is their more efficient markets in terms of lending rates and yields. Since you can borrow against your liquidity pool tokens that earn yield, you pay less in borrowing costs.

Fluid also provides an easy way to earn yield via their Lite feature that automates yield generation. However, be careful of the underlying exposure. In this case, Fluid acts like a Morpho curator/vault and you take additional risks if they move your money into risky assets to chase higher yields. More on that next.

2. Morpho Markets

A direct competitor to AAVE.

The problem with AAVE, which Morpho has fixed some time ago, is that all deposits in v3 enter one big pot. When the hacker came and borrowed assets from that pot (by posting fake collateral), every AAVE depositor was affected in some way.

On Morpho, you can use discrete markets that allow just one type of collateral and one type of borrowing asset. This segregates risks and contains them to that market. Had AAVE used such a mechanic for rsETH, which v4 would have allowed for, the contagion would not have been this dramatic.

An example of such a market is presented below which uses only WBTC and USDC. You post BTC and borrow USDC, that’s it. AAVE simply allowed too many collateral assets (hence more risks) on their v3 platform which eventually lead to the current disaster.

The problem with Morpho is not these markets, but rather the vaults provided by their curators. Sometimes, in the rush to chase higher yields and profits, Morpho curators expose users to exotic assets that lead to losses (like the Resolv USR hack).

I don’t recommend using Morphos vaults, they are too dangerous since curators have little incentives to protect users that deposit there. Curators take a cut on any profits, so they always aim to maximize that even if risks are high for depositors.

Overall, Morpho is a solid choice at over $6 billion in TVL if you know and understand the markets you play in.

3. Spark Protocol (former MakerDAO)

One of the oldest lending markets in crypto.

The creator of the DAI stablecoin, MakerDAO, is one of the oldest lending protocol in crypto. They have since rebranded to Spark / Sky and launched a new stablecoin called USDS to replace DAI.

They faced their ups and downs over the years, but during this AAVE crisis, over a billion in liquidity that left AAVE went to them, making Spark the key beneficiary of this crisis.

This is for a very good reason.

Spark also had rsETH on their platform as a collateral, but was removed. They applied a much tighter risk mitigation policy which has now paid handsomely. When you deal with billions, you need to put user protection and risk mitigation as a top priority. This means being very picky on your collateral assets.

Spark delivered where AAVE failed.

This makes them a favorite among whales and is one of the most robust protocols out there. Together, Spark and Sky hold over $10 billion in TVL and may rival AAVE for the top spot in lending if AAVE continues to bleed liquidity.

4. Honorable Mentions

• Hyperliquid emerging ecosystem of lending markets and related DeFi

• Jupiter lend and similar protocols on Solana

• Uniswap if all you want to do is earn yield on your liquidity

• Curve finance has a growing lending market with crvUSD

• Pendle yields are always attractive

Whatever you choose, pick security first. Avoid exotic assets (like Ethena’s USDe) and if you spot teams getting greedy (like AAVE Labs), get out. Greed in crypto is the first sign things will go wrong.

For example, the AAVE Labs founder (Stani) bought a mansion in central London worth $30 million, then proceeded to do a hostile takeover over the AAVE DAO, removed other service providers that were uncomfortable, and paid himself $50 million in DAO funds to develop AAVE v4.

Weeks later, the AAVE crisis started. Coincidence?

I think the AAVE DAO was so focused on fighting themselves, they forgot their protocol was securing over $26 billion in assets (now under $16 billion). Expensive mistake that costed them billions in TVL. They got complacent and greedy.

But the biggest loss is the trust of their users.

I also had assets in AAVE, but luckily I removed them in time. I will never use AAVE again, especially while it is under the current leadership which also failed to manage this crisis from the start.

Let me know if I missed any good DeFi protocols that are worth attention and drop them in the comments. Like and share this post to spread awareness!

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

You buy the top and sell the bottom. That’s instant liquidity for your counterparts.

To avoid being manipulated, you need to base your decisions on an objective reality. That’s represented by the price chart, not emotions.

In what follows, I’ll show you three charts with pure alpha on Bitcoin and where it is going. This is free knowledge that will help you be a better trader and investor.

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

---

Where is Bitcoin going and how to spot it?

1. The Macro View of Bitcoin

Whenever you are in doubt, zoom out. Emotions are usually triggered by low timeframe price action. This is why, when you feel like you’re about to FOMO or sell the bottom, try to zoom out first to calm down.

Below I show you the monthly timeframe of Bitcoin since 2019.

The price is clearly in an uptrend, but has created a huge bearish wedge. For now, the price held well at the key support around 60k and appears to be bouncing here. This is good news since it could imply a relief rally may be at hand.

However, it is too early to call for a rally because the price needs to break that resistance at 75k and turn it into support. Until then, tame your excitement and don’t get trapped into a possible fake breakout. It will likely be short lived and a trap set by market makers to open new shorts before they send BTC into lower lows.

That’s because if the price falls below this wedge later on (below 60k), this will get very ugly, very fast. I lean bearish long term since I don’t think this bear market ends at 60k. We will likely see new lows later and I’ll explain why using the next two charts. If so, the key area of interest will be between 50k and 30k.

Nevertheless, if bulls show up in numbers in the future, this bearish wedge has plenty of room to allow for a rally or even new record highs at 140k or 150k, depending where the price breaks from the apex.

Keep both these scenarios in your mind. Your ultimate goal should be to buy as much Bitcoin as possible. Don’t aim to trade it as the risk of losing it is not worth it long term.

2. Bullish and Bearish Sweeps

Price action needs no indicators. If you know how to read a price and chart, you’re already ahead of most traders and investors. This comes with time and the below will help you with that.

In a bullish market, whales or market makers will push the price down to liquidate or trigger stop losses before they reverse the price action towards new highs. We call these bullish sweeps (or long sweeps since longs are meant to be liquidated).

In a bearish market, like today, market makers will push the price up to liquidate shorts before they nuke the price lower. This is reflected on the chart as a bearish sweep (or short sweep). See the red and green dots for more examples on Bitcoin below.

The idea is simple, before market makers expose their true intentions for the price, they aim to access the deep liquidity offered by areas on the chart where most people place stop losses or where liquidations are clustered.

Therefore, before Bitcoin can go higher, the aim of market makers is to access that liquidity where most longs will be liquidated. To do that, they need to push the price into a lower low first. Unfortunately, the Bitcoin chart does not show such a patter today. There are no long sweeps, only short sweeps.

In a bear market, the price will make a higher high to trigger shorts liquidations. That’s a clear short sweep and the recent price action by Bitcoin supports that case. Once the liquidity is drained, market makers are free to send the price to new lows.

For most retails users, these mechanics are not very intuitive because market makers operate at a different level. Due to their size and power to push the price, they need to access liquidity to secure profits before they push the price the other way. They can only do that if they can farm retail by triggering liquidations or stop losses.

3. How to Scout for a Top or Bottom?

Now that we’ve covered the bullish and bearish sweeps we can move on to the next chart that shows the aggressiveness from market makers. This can be measured by the angle of the patterns.

As you can notice on the below chart, the closer we get to a top or bottom, the more aggressive the angle of each sweep pattern. No surprise then, that we’re getting more aggressive the lower Bitcoin goes from 10° degrees to 40° degrees today.

This is bearish.

To turn bullish you’d want the angle to reduce in aggressiveness as the price falls or to see a bullish sweep. This is not yet the case. Therefore, it is too early to turn bullish here. Those that go long may soon be trapped while shorts are stopped out.

During the rally from 2023 to 2025, the bullish sweeps increased in angles gradually until a top was found during a bearish sweep at 10° degrees. That in itself was also a bearish signal that a top is in.

To buy the coming bottom, aim to scout for a bullish sweep and buy every time the price makes new lows. Those will be prime buy areas before the price snaps back up and moves into a sustained bull market again.

Last tips

The price of Bitcoin is at a key crossroad today. A break under 60k would send it quickly to new lows and likely a bottom during this bear market. We’re not there yet, but the signs point to this as being the higher possibility based on existing data.

In markets, you need to think in probabilities. Nothing is certain, but the charts can move the edge in your favor if you know how to read them, not predict them. Bitcoin can easily go to 80k during this bearish sweep before new lows, so watch out for that.

Lastly, market makers will play with your emotions to their advantage. Plus they know your liquidation points. If you are predictable, the price will hunt you down before it shows its true intentions.

Good luck and hope the above will boost your edge! Like, share, and subscribe for more alpha in the future.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Several altcoins are showing promise after a brutal correction. If you want to get exposure to the market, this may be a good time to consider it for a quick win.

In this update, I’ll share my thoughts on Bitcoin as usual and my top three altcoins I have my eyes on right now. Let’s start!

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

BTC TLDR: Bitcoin is about to attempt a second rally to the 75k resistance. If it manages to break above it, things are going to look bullish for a while with 90k as the next major target.

Bitcoin pumped by $3,000 when Trump announce the ceasefire and painted a nice bullish candle on the daily timeframe. If this weekly candle closes like today, or even better above the 75k resistance, we will have a major rally ahead of us.

This is turning me quite bullish in the short to medium turn. But I need to see confirmation with a clear break above the 75k resistance first. I don’t think we will need to wait long for that to happen if this momentum is sustained.

Become a Member!

If Bitcoin can clear 75k, then watch the price rally to 90k next. That will be a major resistance zone until about 100k. Don’t think it will go higher than that on first try. Follow the price, don’t try to predict it.

The market has been begging for a relief rally and we might just get it now. We’re long overdue for one and altcoins also stand to benefit greatly when that happens. More on that next.

If you’re turning bullish like me, it’s time to pay attention and get positioned. I see several charts showing great promise in the altcoin space. My focus is on momentum coins, those alts that can run 50% or more in quick succession.

That’s because you want to get massive gains in a short amount of time since we do not know how long this relief rally will last once it gets going.

Aim to be aggressive in taking profits so that you don’t give back the gains to the market if it decides to turn later on.

I’m also sharing my private invite codes below on this new DEX I’m farming. Best of both worlds - trade alts while farming an airdrop. I wrote more on that in Alpha Post #87. Invites are limited: first come, first served.

Without further comment, let’s dive into some juicy alpha covering my Top 3 Altcoins right now!

Read more

I believe we have six to twelve months before the real consequences of what is happening today will affect everyone in a very tangible way.

I summarize that into five key market trends below covering the US Dollar, inflation, Gold, Bitcoin, and stablecoins.

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

---

Top 5 Market Trends You Need to Watch!

1. Dollar Rally Followed by High Inflation

The current uncertainty across the world is driven by the war in the Middle East which has created a short term rally in the US Dollar versus major currencies. That’s because many countries are being squeezed as they now have to pay twice as much in US dollars for the same barrel of oil.

This has pushed the dollar higher and even crashed Gold by over 25% as central banks are selling it to get immediate liquidity during this time. However, this is a short term impact. The longer term impact will be far worse.

As long as the price of oil sits around $100 or higher, that will translate into everything costing between 10% to 30% more. That means high inflation, again. Key driving forces include supply shocks, disruptions in logistics, and higher energy prices. This may end up as Covid 2.0.

What will governments do to address this crisis?

Print more money.

As it happens, the weakest economies are hurt first. For example, the Philippine peso crashed to its lowest level vs the US dollar. Same for Turkey and many other countries.

Eventually, this inflationary spiral will return to the US Dollar once it circulates across the global economy. The world can only take this much beating before the dollar also has to inflate and devalue again.

If you hold USD, expect it to be worth much less by 2027. Time to move to the second trend.

2. Petrodollar Under Pressure, More Inflation

Another reason why the US Dollar is going to be under huge inflationary pressure in the future is related to the petrodollar mechanism. Most of the world has to buy USD before they can buy oil. Short term, a high oil price is bullish for the dollar.

But long term, nations will look for alternatives.

This is why Iran blocks anyone in the Strait of Hormuz from shipping oil, unless they pay in Yuan instead of dollars. This is also why Iran bombed every country in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) like UAE, with Dubai as a prime target.

That’s because GCC countries take only dollars in exchange for their oil, then park those dollars into the US stock market or its arms industry. The GCC accounts for 22% of the worlds oil production.

If the GCC can’t pump out oil for dollars, the demand for USD falls even more. This is again inflationary long term and bad news for USD holders since they will get diluted even more.

It’s also bad news for the US stock market and its magnificent seven that lead the AI race like Nvidia, Google or Microsoft. If the GCC countries no longer park their oil dollars in the US or into the AI narrative, a crash awaits. NASDAQ is already down 10% in 2026.

Right now, the GCC countries have more pressing needs at home like rebuilding their oil infrastructure, than speculate on AI technology. This war already went on for too long and even Trump knows it because the US stock market is starting to curve down.

Trump will do whatever it takes to stop the downtrend and reverse this drop. If the GCC won’t buy more US stocks, guess what can replace that?

Printing even more dollars.

Now that we’ve established why inflation is about to hit us hard, it’s time to look at Gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against this inevitable dilution.

3. Gold Correction Followed by a New Rally

The current selloff in Gold won’t last. That’s a given if you expect high inflation in the future. The liquidity crunch was short lived and whoever wanted to sell Gold most likely did it already.

Still, Gold will need more time to complete its current corrective move. But by 2027, I’d expect Gold to return on a clear uptrend. This will be pretty much guaranteed if inflation kicks in hard across the world.

If you’re looking to buy more Gold, use the second half of 2026 to your advantage. Normally, the market should give us an excellent entry in that period, particularly if the war in the Middle East continues and escalates. Panic is always a prime buy moment.

Eventually, that panic will move money back into safety assets, like Gold, after liquidity needs are satisfied. Bitcoin should follow a similar pattern. More on that next.

4. Bitcoin Correction to Continue Until End of 2026

I am bearish on Bitcoin this year. That’s because I believe we’re about half way in, timewise, into this bear market. We still have at least six months or more left to go before a real reversal takes place.

As it happens, that reversal will likely start as soon as countries start panicking about inflation again in 2027. Until then, prepare to buy discounts.

A price under 50k for one Bitcoin is going to be a steal years from now. Therefore, if you plan to buy more, start anywhere below that level. I see 30k as a more pessimistic bottom for Bitcoin which seems unlikely, but still possible.

Either way, don’t miss this coming window of opportunity. Until then, stack cash and wait for your triggers to hit. Then buy hard. I’ll aim to buy as much BTC and Gold as I can later this year.

5. The Fall of Altcoins and Rise of Stablecoins

Going into the next crypto cycle, I can see altcoins lose much of their appeal. That’s because this past cycle was a total disaster for 99% of people holding altcoins.

The altcoin inflation, much of it driven by Solana, killed the concept of “altcoin season”. Few altcoins delivered (like HYPE), while a majority ended up crashing by over 90%.

If you’ve been around crypto for more than four years, you should have long moved away from altcoins and replaced them with a clear focus on Bitcoin accumulation. That will keep you solvent and make you rich over time.

However, there is one type of altcoin that is thriving:

• Stablecoins

The total market cap of stablecoins is now over $300 billion and has led to a new concept called neobanks. These are digital-only financial institutions operating without physical branches that blend traditional finance with crypto.

Simply put, you can instantly send USDT or USDC around the globe now at near zero costs. Neobanks aim to capture that market and offer in/out ramps for crypto folks.

A recent example is Hyperbeat that allows you to earn on your stablecoins, borrow against crypto assets while linking all that to a card for real life spending.

You can also deposit/withdraw directly from your bank.

As the space matures, neobanks will become ubiquitous. Even X plans to integrate a payment system into their app and link it to a card and everything else you may need.

If you want to make money in the altcoin business, best to invest in companies that are leading on the stablecoins front like Tether or Circle. Problem here is that these are still private enterprises, but may IPO in the future.

Note that USD stablecoins will lose their value over time and are a poor hold compared to Bitcoin or Gold. That’s why you should only hold these short term for spending / consumption purposes. Your wealth should always be kept in hard money.

With neobanks taking over, borrowing and spending against your BTC or Gold will require just a few clicks while you maintain full custody over your assets. That should be your ultimate goal.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Yes. Volatility is a dream for traders. If you plan to trade this, I got good news that will make you eligible for a juicy airdrop.

There’s a new decentralized exchange that just entered the picture. You need to add it to your shortlist and farm it. If you missed Hyperliquid, Lighter, Aster or Grvt, then this is for you.

But before that, let me talk a bit about Bitcoin and Gold.

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

Latest Bitcoin & Gold Price Forecast

BTC TLDR: Bitcoin tried to break above the 75k resistance, but was sharply rejected. This is bearish. If the price falls under the 60k support, expect 50k and lower.

I had hoped that Bitcoin could break that 75k resistance to take us into a sustained relief rally towards 90k. Unfortunately, the macro events are too bearish to allow it. Even Gold has crashed over 20% since its recent top.

In these conditions, the bias remains bearish and attention is shifting towards the key support levels at 68k, 65k and 60k. If the last one falls, then new lows will follow and you should prepare to accumulate more Bitcoin once that happens.

Become a Member!

Gold TLDR: The parabolic rally has ended. Expect a correction/consolidation move for some time between 3k-4k. Afterwards, new highs are likely in late 2026 and beyond.

This crash in Gold prices is the fastest on record with nine consecutive days in red. Considering the macro, you’d expect it to go higher. However, this price action shows panic selling to access liquidity since global markets are under stress.

The actual panic will start when the stock market crashes as well. NASDAQ is already down 10%. The macro is primed for a major crash which will also pull down Gold. At that moment, I’d buy Gold hard. Key levels on the chart with the 3k to 4k zone as a great area to accumulate. Lowest it could go is 2.8k I’d say.

A higher price is pretty much guaranteed later on if the war in the Middle East continues, inflation picks-up, and the stock market falls. I’d definitely consider buying any Gold discounts in such an environment.

This ongoing volatility will filter weak hands, but Gold has been a strong performer in similar times, like the 1970s when we had another energy crisis. I lean bearish until late 2026, but bullish thereafter. Make good use of this time.

It’s hard to get excited about anything in this market right now. However, behind the scenes, there is a new decentralized exchange that caught my attention due to its pedigree and backing.

They do everything Hyperliquid does with lower fees and it’s a prime place to farm a future airdrop! DEXes are one of the few real use cases in crypto that will never go away.

As money rotates between DEXes, you should too. Let’s start.

Read more

The first signal was Bitcoin which stopped falling at 60k. Now, key altcoins are also ready to pump.

Let’s take a closer look at Bitcoin first, then dive into my Top 5 Altcoins this week.

This newsletter is sponsored by 42, the protocol where event outcomes trade like liquid tokens and settle like prediction markets! Turn your information edge into profits.

Open Account!

Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: Bitcoin bottomed at 60k, at least for now, and is flirting with the 75k resistance which is likely to break if bulls test it again. That would push BTC into a sustained relief rally.

Buyers tested the resistance at 75k three times to date, but were rejected. However, the more this level is tested, the more likely it will eventually break. This is why I interpret this price action as bullish.

Moreover, since Bitcoin has been bearish since October 2025, we’re long overdue for a significant relief rally before new lows become possible. Therefore, my bias in the short-term is bullish, while long-term I expect bears to attempt new lows.

Become a Member!

The key support remains at 60k and if the resistance at 75k breaks, then bulls have a good shot to take Bitcoin between 82k and 98k. That area may revert any relief rally since sellers will emerge again as the price approaches 100k.

I’d look for longs if the price breaks above 75k and start shorting once it approaches 100k. Just be mindful that the global geopolitical context is rather volatile so things can change in an instant.

Long term, just focus on accumulating as much Bitcoin as possible since in a few years a price under 100k would be a dream. Now let’s move to the Top 5 Altcoins this week!

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

Top 5 Altcoins This Week!

One of the best performers since late January has been Hyperliquid. Its price is already up by over 80% from the $20 low to around $37 at the time of this post.

Why do I mention HYPE?

Because HYPE is an early mover and shows where the market is headed before the rest follow. It was the first to dump before the market turned bearish in September 2025 and is the first to pump now.

I expect other key altcoins to follow and pump soon as well.

Here are the Top 5 Altcoins I have my eyes on right now.

Read more

The thesis was straightforward: on-chain derivatives exchanges generate real fee revenue regardless of market direction, they don’t need a bull market to function, and the best ones reward early users before the broader crowd catches on.

In the past, I highlighted Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter as some of the names worth paying attention to. The feedback was good, but a lot of you asked the same follow-up question: are there any left with a pre-TGE window still open?

This article will answer that question.

Become a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha!

Subscribe now

The honest answer is that most of the obvious ones have already launched their tokens. Hyperliquid is now a $10B+ project. Lighter had its moments. If you were early, great. If not, those particular windows are closed.

But there’s one that hasn’t launched yet and it’s worth a serious look precisely because of what it offers beyond just being another perp exchange.

That’s Grvt

Pronounced “gravity”

This isn’t a “buy before the airdrop” article. The pre-TGE timing is a bonus. The more interesting story is that Grvt is taking a different angle from what I covered in the past, one focused on real trader experience. In a market where returns are hard to find, that distinction matters.

Grvt is a hybrid derivatives exchange with centralized performance and speed, on-chain settlement, and self-custody. Think Binance’s trading experience with a security model closer to a DEX. It’s live, it’s functional, and the token hasn’t launched yet.

Here are five reasons that sets it apart.

This article is published in partnership with Grvt, the exchange designed to pay you! Open an account to farm up to 11% APY!

Open Account!

1. Smart Order Execution Turns Fees Into Revenue

Most retail traders bleed fees without thinking about it. You hit market orders, you pay taker fees, it compounds quietly against your PnL over time. In a bull market, nobody notices. In a bear market, it’s a slow drain you can’t afford.

The structural fix is to trade like a market maker, not a market taker. When you place limit orders that sit on the orderbook, you’re providing liquidity, and on Grvt, the exchange pays you a rebate when those orders fill. Instead of paying to trade, you’re getting paid to trade (see image).

Hyperliquid ran this model early on and shut it down. Grvt still has it, and for a trader thinking about total return rather than just entry and exit prices, that’s a meaningful edge. Every filled limit order is a small credit back to your account. Across dozens of trades, that compounds.

The strategic implication: if you have a price target in mind anyway, there’s rarely a reason to chase with a market order. Set the limit, let it fill, collect the rebate. Same position, better economics.

2. Let Your Capital Earns While You Trade

This is probably Grvt’s most interesting feature and one that’s still rare in crypto.

On most exchanges, trading collateral sits idle. On Grvt, it doesn’t. Your deposited stablecoin is yield-generating while simultaneously serving as margin, currently earning up to 11% APY.

In practice: deposit USDC, open a futures position, and your margin continues to work for you the entire time.

Later in March, this will becomes even more powerful with the integration of Aave, adding a new trustless DeFi yield source to the Unified Margin framework. The infrastructure expands, but the core principle remains the same: your capital should never sit still.

One strategy worth considering is a delta-neutral setup, going long and short in equal size to neutralize price exposure, while collecting yield on your margin and funding fees from the trade. It’s not risk-free (execution quality, funding rate shifts, and liquidation risk are real), but in flat or ranging markets, the structure can tilt the math in your favor.

3. Self-Custody: You Actually Own Your Assets

After FTX, this shouldn’t need to be said, but apparently it still does.

Grvt settles trades on-chain via an Ethereum Layer-2, meaning your funds aren’t sitting in a centralized black box. Trade settlement, margin management, and withdrawals all happen on-chain. You retain custody.

What makes this more practical than most self-custody setups is the mobile app they recently launched. Self-custody on most DEXs means juggling wallets, browser extensions, and clunky interfaces, Grvt wraps the entire experience into one app.

Trading, margin management, yield tracking, and withdrawals are all there, with the on-chain security running in the background without you having to think about it. For anyone who manages positions on the go, that’s a meaningful quality-of-life upgrade over the typical CEX app that gives you convenience but holds your funds hostage.

4. One Account. Every Market. Zero Opportunity Cost.

It’s long been the norm for trading activity to be scattered across different venues, different asset classes demand different platforms, and different strategies often require different infrastructure entirely. Every time you switch, you’re dealing with separate margin pools, separate fee structures, and separate apps. Capital that’s sitting in the wrong place when an opportunity hits is capital that’s working against you.

Grvt is built around collapsing that fragmentation.

Gold is trading on Grvt right now, and the timing couldn’t be better. Gold has been one of the clearest macro trades of the past year, hitting all-time highs as investors rotate out of risk assets.

Traders who wanted exposure had to go through a separate brokerage or settle for a gold-backed token with its own counterparty risk. On Grvt, it’s a single order from your existing account.

Equities are live too. The S&P 500 has been one of the most resilient assets over the past decade regardless of macro conditions.

And several of its most actively traded constituents are already on Grvt: Tesla, Intel, Robinhood, with more being added.

But the point is that the foundation is already there, and you can trade all of it from the mobile app. One account, one margin pool, every opportunity, whether it’s a crypto breakout at 3am or a macro move in gold during the London open.

5. The Airdrop: A Bonus, Not the Thesis

I want to be clear here: if Grvt’s product wasn’t interesting on its own, the airdrop wouldn’t be worth your time. Bear market airdrops from weak products have a poor track record.

But because the underlying exchange has real utility, especially the unified margin and maker rebates, the airdrop becomes a legitimate bonus on top of an already functional platform.

Here’s how points accumulate:

• Trading activity (taker and maker volume)

• Capital deposits and yield farming

• Open interest contribution

• Referrals

• A 5x point multiplier on altcoin markets (excluding BTC, ETH and SOL)

  

The team has confirmed an AMA next week where more details on the token are expected to be disclosed. Worth tuning in before positioning.

The Bottom Line

Bear markets reward capital efficiency over speculation. The traders who compound through a down cycle aren’t the ones waiting for the next narrative. They’re the ones extracting yield from their margin, reducing fee drag on every trade, and positioning early in infrastructure that has a real shot at mattering when volume returns.

Grvt sits at the intersection of all three. The product is functional today, the economics are real, and the pre-TGE window is still open. None of that guarantees anything. It’s a young platform, and the token timeline remains fluid. But as a place to put active capital to work while the broader market figures itself out, the case is there.

The AMA next week will likely answer a lot of the outstanding questions on the token side. That’s probably the right moment to form a fuller picture before deciding how deep to go.

Open Grvt Account!

If you’ve tried Grvt or have questions about any of the strategies mentioned, drop them in the comments.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

I’m talking about stablecoins dominance.

When the market is bullish, stablecoin dominance falls because everyone wants to capture the next pump and they buy various coins. On the other hand, when the market is bearish, everyone is running to safety and sells their coins for stables. This pushes their dominance up, like today.

Let’s have a closer look next.

Important: YCC subscriptions will be updated as of March 1st. If you’re on the fence about a paid subscription, this is your opportunity to lock in the best price at $7.5 per month (yearly plan). Just click on the below button!

Become a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha!

Subscribe now

In early February, I covered 10 charts that can help you find a bottom. This one is close to number 9 on that list, but with a twist.

You can add up all the biggest stablecoins together to get a comprehensive view of the overall stablecoin liquidity in the market. For the purposes of this article we will use USDT and USDC as seen below.

If you want to create the above chart, simply open the search bar for symbols in TradingView and type this: CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D+CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D

As you can see below, the stablecoin dominance has moved above 11% after breaking away at 8%. That breakout happened just after the BTC top in October 2025. That was a key signal to sell and stay in cash.

The first major resistance of this rally is at 15%, still some distance away from today’s levels. This tells us a few things already:

• The Bitcoin bottom is not in, we have to wait a few more months at least

• The search for a bottom is accelerating based on this price action

• Once a bottom is found, reversal can take at least six months to materialize

Therefore, you should not rush to buy here. This chart, like the others I covered in the past, suggest that it is too early to do so now. At the same time, there is no guarantee the stablecoin dominance will stop at 15% or 16%.

Nevertheless, those levels coincide with a key demand area that is likely to reverse the current downtrend in Bitcoin’s price. Since more and more people are sitting in cash, they will eventually be tempted to deploy it if the price is low enough.

I still believe the area between 50k and 30k is a prime buy zone. However, what we’re missing in this bear market is a clear relief rally. It’s been a non-stop downtrend for almost six months.

In previous cycles, even if we had a bear market, we still got a month or two of bullish price action. This may be expected somewhere after March with a bottom forming as we approach October. This scenario assumes new lows in the second half of 2026.

We will probably have a good idea where this market is going by the start of summer. Hopefully we get a nice relief rally until then as the alternative is quite bleak, but may bring about a bottom faster.

I don’t believe we have reached max pain yet across the markets. That stage is still ahead of us and this BTC/Gold chart may hint at it. Bitcoin can fall almost 30% more against Gold before a bottom. That will surely reach max pain levels.

Exciting times ahead if you plan to top up your Bitcoin bag. Whatever you do, don’t get scared. That’s how the whales shake the coins from your hands and put them in their pocket. Then they send this market to new highs. Don’t fall for that trap.

Stay optimistic.

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

To do so, I recommend using 3 protocols to compound your cash! Keep reading to find all about it plus a bonus activity for all YCC members!

Important: YCC subscriptions will be updated as of March 1st. If you’re on the fence about a paid subscription, this is your opportunity to lock in the best price at $7.5 per month (yearly plan). Just click on the below button!

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

---

Make Money in a Bear Market with These 3 Protocols!

1. Hyperliquid HLP Vault

The Hyperliquid HLP vault is the undisputed king to farm yields in a bear market. That’s because this vault pays best in a bear market: the more traders get liquidated, the more profits you’ll make by depositing cash (USDC) in this vault.

Let’s have a look at its historic returns first (source).

As you can see, only in this January deposits in the vault returned a 6.33% yield, more than other protocols do in a year! That’s huge and miles above US treasuries (4%) or DeFi rates like AAVE (1.5% to 5%).

And the year just started.

If you’re bearish, expect more market turmoil in the future which will lead to more liquidations = profits for the vault. That means this vault will continue to perform well above market rates. In 2025, the yearly yield was over 15%. In 2024, it was even higher at over 30%!

This vault is not without risks, of course. You can see in the table two months with negative returns. However, those are only two months out of 34 months!

I believe the risk/reward ratio is very attractive. No wonder over 380 million has been deposited in this vault.

If you got cash, this is a prime protocol to consider. Moreover, should Bitcoin drop under 50k later this year, you only need to withdraw from the vault and buy BTC on Hyperliquid’s spot market. Flawless and easy.

You can then withdraw the BTC to your cold wallet on the native chain (see image below). You won’t get anything better than this.

2. Flui.io

Fluid is like AAVE, but with additional features, including integration with newer protocol like USDai. This USDai vault offers 9.4% APR right now. That’s over 2x the market rate!

You can also multiply your stablecoin yields by using leverage. As long as you trust the peg of paired stablecoins (like USDe), you can reach over 12-18% APY.

I don’t recommend using this when market is volatile since USDe could lose peg and that can trigger liquidations. Best to not be too greedy and keep your liquidation lower than max if you go for this. However, HLP is a better choice risk wise.

If you like safe and boring vaults following market rates, you can go with Spark 4% yield on USDC. Spark protocol will always offer you a stable rate close to US treasuries.

3. GMX.io

If you are not interested in farming stablecoins yields and want to keep exposure to BTC and ETH for example, you can consider the single pair vaults on GMX.

These yields are pretty solid all things considered since the ETH yield on AAVE is only 2%. On GMX its over 5%. On BTC, you will rarely find any yield over 2% without massive risks.

BONUS - Farm Valor Points on Legion!

This is how you can to boost your future airdrops and public sales!

As promised, we’ve partnered with Legion to bring the best opportunities to YCC members! This may include special sale allocations and airdrops to our community members in the future!

See here a list with previous sales by Legion.

To become eligible, log in to Legion with your Discord account and complete the YCC activities to accrue Valor Points (click Tunisia on the map). These points will increase your chances to get allocations/airdrops in the future via the Legion platform.

Start your conquest now and send your feedback either via a direct message to Duo or on the Legion Discord.

Let me know in the comments what is your favorite protocol to farm yields in 2026? Thanks for reading and good luck!

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Before that, I’ll take a look at Bitcoin and remind you that YCC subscriptions will be updated as of March 1st.

If you’re on the fence about a paid subscription, this is your opportunity to lock in the best price at $7.5 per month (yearly plan). Just click on the below button!

Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home, your gateway to our exclusive alpha!

Premium access & opportunities + Lifetime Patron role on Discord

Subscribe now

---

Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast

TLDR: Bitcoin nuked in February and fell by over 20%! That sent the price to 60k before the current bounce. Even if we get a relief rally, I expect lower lows later this year.

A few days ago, I wrote an extensive post about where Bitcoin could bottom in 2026. The most promising area is between 50k and 30k, as highlighted on the chart by that circle in red.

I do not think Bitcoin bottomed at 60k. A simple check of the monthly MACD confirms this since that indicator is only starting to drop and has plenty of room left to go. Prepare accordingly and hoard cash to buy the bottom.

Become a Member!

I expect Bitcoin to bottom until October or latest by the end of the year. A good way to confirm that is to check the BTC/Gold chart I detailed in my above post already mentioned.

If you manage to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin under 50k later this year, you’re going to have a generational entry in the next five to ten years. Make the most of it if it comes to that.

Don’t be scared if that happens, deploy your cash by laddering limit buy orders from 50k to 30k or lower. Try to catch any wick down. You’ll be glad you did later.

Now let’s move to the Polymarket alpha.

This past week, Polymarket added a new crypto market for Bitcoin that resolves every five minutes! That allows for 12 trade an hour or 288 per day. Several bot developers literally made 100k or more within 24h since this market was launched.

In what follows, I’ll share a trading strategy that can print if executed well. You can book 10% to 50% profits in minutes.

The way it works is that every five minutes this market takes the start price of Bitcoin which becomes the target. If the price ends up above the target after five minutes those that bet on UP win. If the price ends below, those that bet on DOWN win.

In TradFi we call these binary options. You also have 15M, 1H, 4H, 1D options.

The winners take all and the losers lose their bet. This is why you want a high win rate over time and to cut your losses fast before the market expires if the price goes against you.

Since this resolves within five minutes, your time to act is short. But that is also an advantage since you are only exposed to the market for a few minutes at a time. If you ride the trends well, this is free money due to arbitrage opportunities.

Arbitrage opportunities means that Polymarket takes time to adjust to price action movements which allows you to take favorable positions and capitalize on the gap before it is closed.

Polymarket prices also have a small delay compared to live Bitcoin price action. This can be critical to success, but this delay will likely be reduced over time due to bots.

To start, all you need is a crypto wallet with USDC. Connect to Polymarket and make a USDC deposit. Use a cheap network like Arbitrum or Polygon for the deposit. Note that you will also need a few Polygon tokens for gas fees since Polymarket is build on top of the Polygon network. More deposit options below.

Note that if you connect from geo-blocked countries you will not be able to open an account. You can use a VPN, but you may risk your account being banned if so.

Next is my Polymarket strategy. You can also apply this to higher timed binary options like 1H and up. Let’s start printing!

Read more

I expect a bottom within six months, maybe even faster if this accelerated rate of descent is maintained. Bottom should be in by October 2026.

In what follows, I’ll explore with you 10 Bitcoin charts that can help you time the bottom. When we’re there, buy hard. I don’t think Bitcoin will stay low long based on this price action.

Become a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha!

Subscribe now

1. Long Term Holder Realized Price

The first chart I want to show you is the long term holder realized price that calculates the average price at which long-term investors have purchased their Bitcoin, taking into account only those coins that have not moved for a significant period (155 days or more).

The current realized price for such holders is 40k. See the chart.

As you can see, any price under 40k will likely trigger long term holders to buy more and begin the reversal process in this downtrend. Any price under 40k is also a buy signal in my book.

I will personally start dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin once it falls under 50k with the lowest price level I expect around 30k. I find a price at 30k or under unlikely, but never dismiss a wick down there. Be ready to catch it with limit orders.

Historically, any buys under the long term holder realized price was an excellent entry. No reason for this cycle to be different. It would also place BTC in a 70% correction. Pretty similar to the past.

2. Bear Bands

This chart was posted on X by CryptoCon_ and caught my eyes because when he first posted it people laughed at him. They ain’t laughing now. His first target for January - March was hit perfectly at around 60k.

Click on each image to make it larger. The first was his original prediction and the second is a detailed view of the current price action.

The next key target is around 40k and is expected by August - October. The lowest target is just under 30k and likely by the end of 2026. I find this prediction a bit more bearish overall, but don’t dismiss it. Plan around it.

3. Excavo Cycles

Excavo is an old trader that has been active in crypto for over a decade. He posted the below chart back in September 2025 when he told everyone he sold everything because the top was in. He was right.

As you can see, he predicts a bottom around 40k and likely to happen before the end of 2026 or in early 2027. This fits with my own expectations, but I am leaning on Bitcoin finding a bottom faster and most likely before 2026 is over.

4. Bear Markets Comparison

A look at 2026 vs previous bear markets shows us this crash is a bit faster than 2021 and slower than 2013 or 2017. This projection also implies a bottom around late 2026. Right on target I’d say.

I don’t think Bitcoin falls to 20k or lower, but 30k as the 2021 bear market projection shows in green? Yep, that’s possible.

5. Symmetry to Previous Cycle

Another pertinent point is that this cycle mirrors the last one quite well. This can be seen below. If the price action respects the past, expect a bottom at the 78.6% Fib level or around 40k.

6. Bitcoin vs Gold

This chart already predicted the Bitcoin top to perfection, can it also predict the bottom? We have a few more levels to touch before the bottom is found, specifically 11 and 9.

I’d be patient until at least July before making any judgement. We need to let the price show us its intentions. What this chart also misses is a bounce. We’ve had no bounce or relief rally since August 2025 vs Gold. That’s seven months of downtrend only! Crazy.

7. Don’t Fall for Hopium

While the below pattern could hold a surprise for the market, I find such an outcome highly unlikely. The most obvious and likely scenario is for the price to maintain its current downtrend (or existing trend) as shown in previous charts.

For Bitcoin to follow Gold we need a major catalyst or black swan event that can trigger such a significant rally. Don’t bet on this. Keep your cash safe and ready to buy the bottom. Worst case scenario, you lose nothing.

8. “Crypto/Bitcoin is Dead!”

Until you don’t see these words all over your news feed or on X, you’re probably too early to buy. It’s an excellent bottom signal. While this is not a chart in itself, it’s a sentiment indicator that’s very effective.

The opposite of this is euphoria and ridiculous price targets in a bull market. Such delusion is a great exit signal.

9. USDT Market Cap

Another excellent bear/bull market signal is the USDT market cap. As long as it makes higher highs, the trend is bullish. This changed since January 2026 when the market cap of USDT started to fall.

As long as this continues to fall, there’s no reason to turn bullish. Start buying once USDT market cap goes up for two consecutive months. That’s a pretty solid buy signal.

10. Follow the Price Action

Sometimes you just got to follow the price. Buy the red circle. That’s it.

Subscribe now

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Since I started this newsletter, our community has grown tremendously, and with it, the attention we have been receiving. To keep building the best possible experience for you, I am updating our pricing for new Patron members as of 1 March 2026.

If you were thinking to upgrade to a paid plan or are still on the monthly plan, this is you opportunity to lock in the best possible rate before the changes take effect. I recommend the yearly plan at only $7.5/month or the Unlimited plan by following the link below.

Subscribe now

Starting 1 March 2026, the updated subscription plans for new subscribers will be as follows:

• $12 / month

• $108 / year ($9 / month, save $36 or three months)

• $290 / year for Unlimited access

The Unlimited plan remains $190 until the start of March and offers you exclusive access to our best market opportunities. For example, the Flying Tulip whitelist where our Patrons Pro were able to secure $250,000 in token allocations thanks to our partners before the public sale started.

The Unlimited plan also grants you a lifetime Patron Pro role on our Discord where many opportunities are discussed in exclusive channels before they become public. Your private access there remains for life even if you later change or cancel your Unlimited subscription.

It won’t get better than this. You can update your monthly or yearly plans to Unlimited in your Substack account before the changes take effect later in March.

Additionally, I am in discussions with Legion by Kraken to bring the best market opportunities to our members. This includes tailored access to private and public sales, exclusive allocations for our community, and alpha that is not easily accessible. These will be made available to our Patrons in this newsletter and on Discord.

With that said, I want to thank everyone for their support in the past years. Hundreds of Patrons made YCC their home and we’ve become one of the biggest communities in crypto. If you have any feedback, don’t hesitate to reach out!

Next, it’s time for some juicy alpha, including three major token launches expected in February!

TLDR: Bitcoin made a lower low at 72k and most indicators show a likely bottom in the short to medium term. However, the macro view remains bearish even if the price may bounce here. Expect lower lows later in 2026 if BTC cannot reclaim 100k.

As you can see on the chart, Bitcoin has returned to the margins of this expanding triangle. Normally, we should get a bounce around this area, but if bulls cannot reclaim 100k as support, it’s hard to turn bullish.

The latest candle indicates a likely reversal in the future due to its narrow body, showing buyers are interested again. By the end of this week, we will know if BTC reverses here (even if for a brief period) or not.

Become a Member!

The bullish view is that Bitcoin stops around 70k and returns on a steady uptrend that can challenge the 100k resistance. The bearish view sees the price bounce here briefly then makes new lows. In that case, expect 60k or even 50k as we approach the summer months.

If we get any price around 50k, you should seriously consider buying or starting your DCA (dollar-cost average) into BTC. We will have more clarity by mid-February. Now let’s dive into the latest opportunities in the altcoin space!

January was quiet in crypto, but February is about to change that. This month, we have three major token launches which deserve your close attention. If you want to speculate on solid projects, these are some of the best available in crypto today!

Without further ado, let’s get right into it.

Read more

Gold only doubled in the same period and added $15 trillion to its market cap. That’s 5x the total market cap of crypto, including Bitcoin.

I’ve been recommending Gold for a long time, and in this post, I will explain why this is happening and where prices may top using six key charts. Scroll down.

Become a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha!

Subscribe now

Why are metals going crazy?

Everyone is revising their investment thesis lately.

The fundamental reasons are slightly different based on the metal in discussion. Let me explain these in brief, then move to the charts showing where they can top.

• Gold - central banks FOMO, debasement trade, hedge against war and crises

• Silver - huge demand from AI sector, Veblen effect, short squeeze

• Copper - huge demand from AI sector, production to lag demand for decades

Why is Gold pumping?

Gold is old money, the real thing. Since USA decided to weaponize the dollar against Russia in 2022 by freezing their accounts in Belgium, the world realized they need an alternative to the dollar.

This is when central banks, with a focus on China, have been starting to buy huge amounts of Gold as insurance. Moreover, China opened Gold spot trading in Shanghai. The price of Gold is no longer decided by London, but by the biggest buyers.

On the other side of the world, in Switzerland, the Bank of International Settlements (the central bank of central banks) made Gold a Tier 1 High-Quality Liquid Asset. This allows banks to count Gold at 100% of its market value toward their core liquidity reserves, treating it as a risk-free asset similar to cash. This happened in July 2025.

In today’s world, buying Gold and seeing its price pump is driven by real incentives motivating bankers to hoard it. The other incentive is hedging against uncertainty. The world is becoming more decentralized (or multipolar), unstable, with crises and wars likely to proliferate. Gold is insurance in a world where globalization is collapsing and you can’t trust any fiat money, including the dollar.

Why are Silver and Copper pumping?

Almost 60% of all Silver is used in industrial applications. Silver is not pumping for the same reasons as Gold. The thesis here is slightly different and also applies to Copper.

To sustain AI development and reach AI singularity, where artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, huge investments have already been committed today where some AI companies are buying a decade-worth of future supply of resources.

Current estimates show that the existing demand for Copper is higher than the total expected production for years to come. This has naturally pushed prices higher. In the case of Silver and Gold, there is also the Veblen effect. Essentially, the demand for these precious metals increases as their price goes higher.

To make matters worse, some traders decided to short or already had massive short positions on Gold, Silver, or Copper. These were either naked or delta neutral positions. However, because of the accelerating prices, the margin requirements have increased, requiring more collateral to keep positions open.

If such traders were deep in red and needed more collateral, they likely blew up, and were forced to liquidate their short positions. This means they had to buy Silver, Gold or Copper at huge losses! That’s a short squeeze. The implication are severe and also impacts crypto as explained next.

Crypto vs Metals

What started as a joke is no longer a joke.

In the past year, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been moving sideways and most altcoins crashed. Last year, people joked that Gold may hit $5,000 before Ethereum. Well, that joke became reality this week.

This raises a bigger problem for crypto-natives. Look at this chart.

In blue we have Ethereum, in yellow Gold. Ethereum’s volatility was all over the place in the past five years, up and down, and underperformed Gold. Meanwhile, Gold was in a steady uptrend with little volatility, and offered better returns as of today.

Based on this data, you want to select the asset with the highest Sharpe ratio, i.e. Gold had a better risk-adjusted return due to its significantly lower volatility. If we add Silver to this discussion, then few altcoins are worth your attention.

This puts into question the whole crypto sector. It’s simply an inferior buy. Granted, such a run in metals is a once in a decade or two event. Still, I believe Gold has much more room to grow (Copper too). Silver, however, may be approaching a top. More on that below.

What metal to buy today and where will they top?

Silver to $150. Gold to $10,000 or even $20,000. Copper to $10 and beyond.

If you did not load up on metals last year, you are late today, especially on Silver. One way to assess it is to look at the Gold and Silver ratio. As you can see below, we left the zone to buy Silver some time ago.

If you already hold Silver, this is the time to think about rotating it into Gold. I do not recommend buying Silver here or above $100. You’re taking too much risk.

Another look at Silver can be seen on the Bitcoin and Silver ratio. It seems Bitcoin can still dump a bit against Silver, but the main move is behind us. The below chart indicates that Bitcoin may soon bottom against Silver since a major support is about to be hit. That can signal a top for Silver and a buy for Bitcoin.

In this context, you want to rotate out of Silver into Bitcoin. This is similar to the Gold/Silver ratio presented earlier. Both indicate a top on Silver is likely in the near future. I estimate any price up to $150 could end up as a top for Silver. If you hold any, it’s good to reduce risks in the weeks and months to come.

When it comes to Gold, the horizon is quite different. This is obvious once we look at Gold against the S&P500. The chart below gives a good long term perspective.

Gold has been in a bull market since 2000 against the S&P500. The ongoing rally is just the second leg or pump in a multi-decade Gold bull market.

If the uptrend breaks above a ratio of 1 on the above chart, then Gold will be well on its way to hit the previous high from 2010 which would be around $10,000 in today’s dollars. Should this second pump make a higher high (likely), then even a $20,000 price becomes possible. That’s a 4x from today’s price. Crazy, but not impossible!

The alternative is a massive crash in the US stock market, which would see Gold pump hard on this chart even if it just holds its current price.

Lastly, Copper broke away from a massive and long consolidation, presented below. This can easily hit $10 or higher later on. If you can get access to spot, not a bad hold in the next year or two. You can hold Copper futures on Hyperliquid, but the funding rates will erode any gains.

With that said, let’s look at Bitcoin compared to Gold.

Historically, the BTC/Gold ratio was always on point to signal a top for Bitcoin. This happened again in September 2025 when Bitcoin topped at 126k. Since then, BTC quickly fell against Gold. That coincided with the breakdown on the below chart, highlighted in red.

I saw the breakdown when it happened and even tweeted about it, but it was hard to believe this BTC/Gold ratio would be so accurate. Looking back, it was the exact top.

Can Bitcoin go lower against Gold? Definitely. We have support at 16, 13, 11, and 9. While 16 is interesting for a bounce, 13 is a better candidate for a bottom. This tells me Bitcoin is likely to bottom in 2026 against Gold with a higher low then return on an uptrend.

In other words, Gold is expected to continue its uptrend and outperform both Bitcoin and the US stock market in the near term. In the medium term, a pullback is likely sometimes in 2026 which can give you a good entry if you’re aiming for 10k or 20k within three to five years.

Where next for Bitcoin and crypto in 2026?

In general, I have a bearish outlook for crypto in 2026. I expect the market to bottom sometimes in mid/late 2026, then a recovery and sustained rally can start in late 2026 or early 2027.

This crypto bear market could be extended further if the stock market crashes at any point in 2026/2027. On the other hand, I believe metals like Silver or Gold topping will be bullish for crypto since money will look to rotate into the next best thing. After Gold, only Bitcoin qualifies as such.

Silver investors are more likely going to look into altcoins since that suits their profile better. However, neither Silver nor altcoins are a good long term investment, they are, at best, a great tool for speculating quick gains. In a year or two, most of the current Silver gains will likely be lost as it crashes 70% to 90% like in the past.

That’s because the AI driven demand also looks like a bubble that may pop in a year or two. This AI FOMO is also driving most of the stock market returns lately. This makes me stay away from buying stocks nowadays. Too risky.

In such uncertain times, bet on certainty. That’s Gold and Bitcoin. These are the best assets to protect your wealth long term. Don’t be tempted by other investments beyond speculative bets. They end up as a massive trap. We know that well enough in crypto if you’ve been here long enough.

Subscribe now

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Time to find out.

Scroll down to read my top 10 crypto predictions in 2026.

Become a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha!

Subscribe now

1. BTC is bearish at first, but turns bullish later

I remain somewhat bearish on Bitcoin in the first part of 2026. The downtrend that started in late October 2025 is still ongoing. If the support at 83k and 74k won’t stop this downtrend, then expect a longer bear market with a key target around 50k.

This is the pessimistic scenario which I put at around 40% chance. If we get such price levels, buy hard. It will be one of the last chances to get into Bitcoin at mid-five figures. After that, I expect future BTC prices to hold above 100k.

The optimistic scenario assumes this price action is a long consolidation in a large range which has held true for over a year. The BTC price is basically identical to a year ago. If 100k is reclaimed, bulls will return and push Bitcoin very high, very fast similar to how Gold has been acting lately. That makes 150k an easy target. We will probably know if this scenario is realistic by March.

I also think Gold is basically telling us how Bitcoin will behave in the future. If not this year, then the years after for sure. It’s just a matter of time before we will see Bitcoin double or more within a year like in the past. Just be patient, it will come. Until then, accumulate as much as you can if discounts increase in 2026.

2. ETH remains flat under $5,000

Ethereum has been flat since 2021. Yes. Just look at the price action on the chart. This is because of multiple reasons, one being that Ethereum has become too complex and lost focus for a while. Even Vitalik agrees.

Moving away from Layer-2 scaling and re-focusing on improving the Layer-1 experience, which includes lowering transaction fees, has been the correct approach in the last year or so. This puts ETH back on a bullish trajectory in my eyes.

Moreover, institutional adoption and their plan for tokenization of stocks and everything else on chain is extremely bullish for Ethereum as one of the default choices in this process. Eventually, ETH will break away from the $5,000 resistance. That will take it to 10k or more.

However, I don’t see Ethereum having its major breakout this year. We will have to wait a bit longer for that.

3. Solana falls under $100

Because of the new L1 meta, you may think Solana will do well. However, the reverse is more likely because you only need one L1 chain to do a good job (think Ethereum) and that will capture 80% of the market, if not more, based on the pareto principle.

Solana also has a fundamental problem. Running a Solana validator is very expensive and highly dilutive of holders due to token subsidies. That’s why Solana validators went from 5,000 to less than 800 in two years. Solana is expensive to run, bloaty, and getting more centralized over time. The price action shows it too.

As you can see on the chart, SOL made a head and shoulder reversal pattern with a clear base around $100. If that support is lost, SOL will fall hard later this year and likely run towards $40. There is nothing bullish on this chart. I recommend you stay away from SOL in 2026.

4. XRP falls under $1

We know XRP is a momentum coin that likes to pump and 5x in a few weeks. The problem is that this already happened in late 2024. Since then, the price has been flat in 2025. I suspect in 2026 it will correct further.

I see a re-test of $1 or lower as very likely in 2026. This can also be seen on the monthly MACD which turned bearish in late 2025. Historically, it can take over one year for this downtrend to reverse.

For this reason, like with Solana, I don’t recommend touching XRP in 2026. There’s nothing attractive on this chart and from a fundamental point of view XRP has nothing going for it. It has become mostly a meme coin in the last few years.

5. BNB revisits $700

After a strong performance in 2025, it’s time for BNB to cool down, especially if other major altcoins continue to correct in 2026. The most likely scenario is for BNB to continue its current downtrend until it reaches the support at $700 which is the best candidate for a strong defense by bulls.

I’d look at that area to accumulate more. Historically, Binance Coin held pretty well in all market conditions because its supply is tightly controlled by Binance and its founder CZ that hold most BNB tokens.

Once the market turns bullish again, BNB will make new highs. I think this is likely from 2027 onwards.

6. ADA remains under $1 forever

Long term, the L1 space can only sustain one or two chains with any real traction. Right now that’s mostly Ethereum. Solana had its spotlight moment with memes, but that is gone now and BNB had a chance, but blew it. What is left for Cardano? Not much.

I don’t see a way where ADA can return to make a splash in 2026 or any time beyond that. Even its founder, Charles, said he will stop being active on social media because of “toxicity”. Sounds to me like he plans to retire early after making hundreds of millions off ADA.

Cardano holders? Left holding a big bag of nothing.

Don’t fall for any new marketing narratives around ADA or any new L1, most are just a blip before they fall into irrelevance (Monad anyone?). Another good example of that is the Cosmos ecosystem which pretty much died in the past few years after being one of the most exciting things in crypto for a while.

7. HYPE falls to $10

Whatever hype HYPE had left in 2025, is now gone. The price is down 65% since its all-time high. I expect this bearish price action to continue in 2026 until at least -80% to -90% from ATH.

That will put HYPE somewhere around $10 at the end of this correction.

The reason HYPE is underperforming to such an extend is because of major token unlocks which have generated a lot of selling, including from team members. This cascaded into whales also heading for the exits. For example, HYPE team members sold over 500k HYPE tokens or over $10 million in early 2026.

Team members received HYPE at zero cost basis. They literally printed the tokens from thin air. Therefore, for them, selling at any price is pure profit. Plus they deserve it after such a performance since early 2025.

Still, Hyperliquid remains the best decentralized exchange on the market. I don’t see that changing any time soon. For this reason, getting a fat bag around $10 will probably do well into 2027 and beyond.

8. Mantle revisits $0.50

Think of Mantle as a BNB beta. In 2025, Mantle became the native token of Bybit exchange. This allowed its price to make a new all-time high at almost $3. That performance was impressive, but the price pretty much erased all of that since.

There is a good chance this goes to 50 cents which will make it attractive again. Getting a bag there is probably a sound bet as Bybit will thrive during the next bull market which will push MNT much higher again. Easy way to 2-5x your money.

9. XMR goes above $1,000

Coins like Monero, that focus on privacy, are due to thrive in the age of AI which can analyze all your financial history with one click since most blockchains are public.

The XMR price already shows it.

A massive breakout from a multi-year consolidation that created a huge ascending triangle. I expect this to hit $1,000 in 2026 and go far beyond it in the years to come. Make sure XMR is on your watchlist.

10. Gold will rally higher, but expect a significant pullback

If you bought gold at any point in the past three years you are in solid profit. If you only bought Gold, you’d outperform both the S&P500 and Bitcoin, at least since late 2024.

If you are in crypto, you can get exposure to Gold via tokens such as PAXG and XAUT on Hyperliquid or most centralized exchanges. Most predictions put Gold above $5,000 in 2026 with long term targets above $10,000 in the coming years.

This is almost guaranteed to happen considering the global geopolitical situation where fiat debt-based systems are breaking down. There is simply too much paper money going around, like too many altcoins. These are worthless over time.

Gold and Bitcoin are a hedge against that. In this context, use any significant pullback to ape in and get a fat bag of Gold if the opportunity arises. I’ve been a heavy Gold buyer since 2021. I’ll add more on every pullback in the next 5 years.

Subscribe now

This newsletter is made possible with the generous support of our Patrons and partners. Upgrade your experience by becoming a Patron for lifetime access to our exclusive private alpha! Details are available on our Patrons page. All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.