Bitcoin breaks ATH! Here's your exit plan.
A practical guide on the best time to sell and book profits in a bull market.
There are two strategies you can apply to time your exit in this bull market:
The first is based on price
The second is based on time
Neither is better than the other and using both can net you better results. Using just one exclusively will likely make you miss big.
Below I explain each strategy individually and then apply them on clear examples using Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins. Let’s dive in. TLDR at the end.
A time-based exit should be favored for Bitcoin and Ethereum as market leaders, not a specific price. For altcoins it is the reverse.
Read my below strategies, then study the examples. After that, apply this to your crypto portfolio. Make some educated guesses for targets across your list of coins and draft an exit plan. Keep it realistic and respect it as the market evolves.
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Using price as an exit strategy
I mostly use a price-based exit for altcoins. This is because individual altcoins have their own mini-cycles and don’t top at the same time with Bitcoin. Some move faster, some move slower.
Waiting for Bitcoin or Ethereum to top may be a waste of time since some alts top well before that. Therefore, having a price in mind is key to secure profits. Either way, aim to fully exit altcoins a few weeks after Bitcoin tops.
Here are the key moments you should seriously consider taking profit on alts:
Price is near its current all-time high
Price did a 5x, 10x, 20x, or more (from the bottom, not your entry!)
Guiding examples next.
Each chart is representative of altcoins with different momentum and targets. FLOKI is a good example of a meme coin that can 100x, RUNE is a solid project that can >20x in this cycle and AAVE will do great if it reaches its current ATH or around a 10x. Use this guide to assess your alts across these three categories.
FLOKI
FLOKI did a 65x since its bottom. If you bought the bear market prices, you should have already taken out your principal, at minimum.
The price is now also approaching ATH levels. Best to secure some serious profits around this area and then leave a small bag for new highs (if it happens). Buying here makes you exit liquidity in my view, best to seek other opportunities.
RUNE
RUNE did a 14x from its bottom. If you didn’t take your principal out yet, then for sure you should do it when the price closes on its all-time high around $20. RUNE could totally go higher and make a new record. By that time, your initial capital should be out plus some serious profits. The rest you can sell once BTC tops.
AAVE
AAVE just woke up after a long consolidation and already did a 3x from its current bottom. Book profits once it 5x from the bottom or around $300. AAVE could reach ATH, but has less momentum compared to RUNE or FLOKI. Don’t expect a 65x here like with FLOKI.
Keep a bag for a new ATH, just in case. Sell it all once BTC tops.
Using time as an exit strategy
Time means cycles and the coin that sets the cycles in crypto is Bitcoin. If you didn’t know, Bitcoin works on a four year cycle based on its halving schedule.
The halving has a massive impact on BTC’s price because of its supply shock = less coins = higher price. Historically, Bitcoin made a new all-time high after its halving.
However, this year we have an anomaly!
For the first time ever, Bitcoin did a new all-time high BEFORE its scheduled halving in April 2024. This is because the ETF approval back in January can be considered like an early halving event that lead to a demand shock = exponential demand = higher price.
Only yesterday, the ETFs bought $1 billion worth of BTC!
You should only consider taking profits on BTC and ETH after the halving event of a particular cycle. Ideally, around a year after, that’s when prices approach maximum heights.
However, the anomaly due to the BTC ETFs has speed up this cycle. You could say we have two halving events in 2024. One already created a demand sock and the other will create a supply shock. Together, they speed up this cycle. That will be compounded further if Ethereum also gets its own ETFs.
For this reason, if you calculate around one year from January 2024 instead of April 2024, you could argue this bull market may top at the end of 2024 or in early 2025. Based on this, my window of opportunity to book profits on Bitcoin and Ethereum is between October 2024 and March 2025.
On this BTC chart, I plotted in red the 2016-2017 bull run which lasted for two years over the current bull market that started in January 2023. At the time of this post, BTC’s price appears to be moving faster than the cycle in red.
Curious enough, the top of 2017 and my exit window match. I don’t think Bitcoin will reach $1 million in 2025, but happy to be surprised. Either way, if the price closes a monthly candle below the parabola in yellow, then Bitcoin will most likely top around there.
Once the price reaches our exit window you should start selling. I recommend dollar-cost averaging out (DCA):
DCA out 15% per month or 4% per week starting in October 2024. That will allow you to exit in full by end of March 2025.
Start selling early if Bitcoin and Ethereum are above a given price and especially if you make life-changing paper profits
Earlier I mentioned combining price and time for a better exit. If, for some reason, Bitcoin is above 200k and Ethereum is above 10k before October 2024, then I will start taking profits earlier. This cycle may go faster than expected!
Aim to take out your principal and some serious profits if so. I plan to liquidate all my alts, Ethereum and maybe sell some Bitcoin that I hold from altcoin profits. Right now, if I 10x on an altcoin I move that profit into Bitcoin or Ethereum. Later, I will sell them when the price reaches my exit window or my trigger price.
I may also decide to not sell any Bitcoin. The only reason to speculate on a Bitcoin top is to buy more later. But that is risky and you can get burnt. Never sell all your Bitcoin.
A similar projection on Ethereum using the last bull run shows that our exit window seems to be quite accurate as well. Interestingly, it also shows Ethereum could go well above 20k. That’s an optimistic scenario, but if the Ethereum ETF is approved this year, that could actually materialize.
Work on your exit plan now
If you want to be successful and leave this bull market satisfied, you need an exit plan. If you don’t have one, start making one now. Success means you respected your exit plan, not hitting a certain dollar value.
Ask yourself how much do you want to make in this bull market? Have a target, but make it realistic. Look at your crypto portfolio today, what is its value? Then 2x to 10x that value. If you 10x it, you’re probably not being realistic. If you 2x it, you’re likely going to hit it. Pick your range and risk profile. That’s your price target.
If you don’t hit your price target in the time window between October 2024 and March 2025, start thinking seriously if your price target is realistic. I think 2025 will likely be the year this market turns bearish, so don’t delay much once we’re well into next year. Take profits on the way up. DCA out.
If your target is hit and you respected your plan, you will leave this bull market satisfied. Make sure to control for greed, because as prices go up, you will be tempted to change your targets. That’s how you miss your exit.
Don’t FOMO back into the market in late 2025. If the market tops, forget about it for one to two years. You buy back in the next bear market.
TLDR & Tips to Remember
Aim to take out your initial investments as key targets are hit
The best time to book profits appears between late 2024 & early 2025
Sell at least 10% of your bag for every 10x in price
Book profits around the all-time highs
If you bought late, don’t assume a 10x is easy, it may not be
Calculate a 5x/10x/20x using the bottom price, not your entry price
Do not sell all your coins if the cycle is not over. Keep a FOMO bag
Some alts will never reach ATH due to inflationary tokenomics
Liquidate all altcoins after the market has topped
Draft an exit plan now and respect it later
Never sell all your Bitcoin
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All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
Hello DUO NINE. Can you pay to you by paypal while login in "Your Crypto Community"?
Great write up. My only nitpick: don't DCA out, BCA out. Sell a fixed amount of BTC (or whichever crypto) every x days.