The US dollar is strengthening, Gold is falling, Bitcoin is rallying, the US stock market is at an all-time high, bonds are crashing while treasury yields are exploding. Oil also rallied and crashed several times in 2026.
To be confident in a market, you need things to align in confluence. However, today, everything is acting out of sync. That is not bullish.
This is a massive warning to play a defensive game and guard your portfolio. Below, I explain why you need to pay attention, but first a few words on the recent Jumper public sale that achieved a 24x oversubscription!
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Jumper just had its public sale at the start of October. They hoped to raise $2M, but got $48M in interest instead = 24x oversubscribed.
Our community, YCC, had a guaranteed allocation for its members via our partnership with Legion that brokered the sale. If you’re not already in our Discord or Patrons group, this is one of the reasons you should join.
Many tried to get in, but slots were limited. I got an allocation as seen below.
If you don’t know Jumper, it’s one of the biggest crypto bridge aggregators with billions of swaps per months. They plan to TGE at the end of 2026, and if this interest is maintained, their token could have an explosive rally.
As things heat up in the market, you need to secure such access to not miss out on future sales. The earlier you can join the better since by TGE time you can capture a lot of that upside thanks to such early sales.
Now lets get back to the market.
The first signal that showed a diverging market was seeing Gold top and crash 30% while Bitcoin rallied 50% in 2026. This can also be best seen on the BTC/GOLD chart below.
One take away from the above chart is that market participants have become less anxious (hence they sold gold) and appear happy to take risk again chasing profits, like buying Bitcoin. However, this optimism could also be a classic bull trap.
This most recent rally on the BTC/GOLD chart has formed a bearish channel. Where did we see this pattern before?
On the Bitcoin/USD chart. We had three such instances there, as seen below.
It may be that this renewed optimism in the market could be short lived before a new bearish news or trigger sends Gold soaring and Bitcoin corrects. That’s a prime buy opportunity if you missed the 58k bottom (see the blue zone in the first chart).
Use it when it comes!
The second signal that tells me something is not quite right with this market is found in the below chart on long-term US interest rates.
The 10-year treasury yield just passed its 4% average and likely will continue to rally much higher. This implies higher inflation ahead, interest rates in double digits (mortgage defaults), and likely an overdue market crash at some point in the future (more on that soon).
While inflation is bullish for Bitcoin, uncertainty and a risk-adverse market (Gold buying) is bearish. Either way, in the case of Bitcoin, you just want to buy any discounts and then wait.
I am just not convinced Bitcoin has bottomed at 58k. At least not yet. You may want to keep cash for that possibility.
The third signal is this viral video that basically shows the current stock market is a scam. More explicitly, today’s IPOs offer much less upside potential than in the past, they happen later, and at ridiculous valuation in the trillions. Retail no longer captures much of that value appreciation in the public market.
Instead, retail is just dumped on while insiders or private equity holders cash in big.
By the time an IPO goes live, insides already 1,000x their money while retail is left holding the bag. This is similar to accessing private token sales in crypto and dumping at TGE. That’s why you want to get in early, like with the Jumper sale.
These market changes described in the video come on top of the AI bubble which is just the same money rotating 10x time, similar to leverage in DeFi or counting $1 ten times. I can’t say when things will crack, but a perfect storm seems to be building towards a big finale.
Perhaps the best indicator of anxiety or uncertainty is the oil price in 2026. We got to thank Trump and Iran for that. Hardly a bullish signal that will take time to be reflected in other markets, mostly with accelerating inflation.
While that is happening, this is how the S&P 500 looks. The mother of all bubbles. Hard to dismiss this as something normal, it’s not. It’s exactly what you see before an enormous crash.
Finally, to make the market contradictions even more obvious you also have a US dollar that is strengthening while Bitcoin continues to defy it. Generally, when the dollar becomes stronger, everything else falls, including Bitcoin.
This only adds to my thesis that this current run in Bitcoin may be temporary, especially if the USD continues to strengthen.
Here is the dollar index or DXY. It’s been going up since April 2025 in a massive uptrend channel. Resistance at 106 and 117. The last time it was around 110, one USD equaled to one EUR.
The bottom line is that the market is sending us mixed signals and is all over the place. In those moments, at least in crypto, it’s best to sit and wait. That’s also a trade, and sometimes, it is the best one you can take.
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