The Bitcoin bull market didn't even start!
The Bitcoin bull market didn't even start!
We have good evidence that the best is still ahead of us.
People are freaking out. Bitcoin didn’t make a higher high since March 2024 and sentiment is at an all-time low across the market.
What if I told you that this bull market didn’t even start yet!
I got an intriguing chart to show you and we need to discuss it. Let’s dive in. TLDR at the end.
Everyone was surprised when Bitcoin made an all-time high in March 2024 before its halving in April.
This never happened before.
Until then, all new records were made post-halving! Obviously, excitement was high and people were expecting Bitcoin to reach $100,000 in no time. Six months later, this still did not happen. We’ve been in a flat trend.
This has killed morale across the market, especially because some altcoins made new lows compared to the 2022-2023 bear market.
What if we were misled by this early pump by Bitcoin?
Let me introduce you to the price of Bitcoin measured in Gold. Look carefully at the chart below. What do you see?
Bitcoin did NOT make an all-time high in 2024 if we measure it against Gold.
Wait a minute, what is going on here?
Inflation and devaluation of the US dollar. In 2021, when we had the last Bitcoin all-time high, the value of the US dollar was stronger than today.
In other words, $100 dollars in 2021 are worth $116 today. That’s a 16% difference!
What was Bitcoin’s ATH in 2021? $69,000
What was Bitcoin’s ATH in 2024? $73,835
Woops.
The $73,835 all-time high from March 2024, if adjusted for inflation, did not exceed the one from 2021! Bitcoin needs to go over $80,000 to do that! So far, it did not!
We’ve all been misled by the US dollar devaluation!
Bitcoin did not break any record before its halving. It still has to do that just like in every other cycle to date! That means only one thing.
The real bull market has not even started.
Only when Bitcoin is above $80,000 we will actually enter price discovery again. That is when the proper bull market starts. Until then, getting excited is premature.
Based on this, I suspect Bitcoin will top somewhere in early 2025 rather than this year. It usually takes Bitcoin several months to top once it breaks into a new all-time high.
The longer we have to wait for a breakout above $80,000, the longer we have to wait for that top in this cycle. Strap in and be patient. This cycle is far from over and the best part did not arrive yet.
That “record” at 74k was a false start in this bull market. The real start is at $80k. That’s where your attention should be. If you want to be ready for that and take your experience to the next level, consider joining our Patrons group too.
TLDR & Tips to Remember
The Bitcoin / Gold chart shows clearly BTC did not make a new ATH
When adjusted for USD inflation, Bitcoin had a fake all-time high this year
The real breakout is actually above $80,000 if measured in 2024 dollars
Until Bitcoin breaks that level, this bull market did not really kick into gear
Be patient and wait for that signal, then expect a top a few months later
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All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
Thats some seriously high quality primo hopiuim you are smoking. Where can I get some? 🤣
That would be great if you are right but things are looking bad. Nearly every indicator points to full blown recession. Btc has never weathered a recession. Risk-on assets will be the first to dump so we shall see….
Im still HODL-ing and DCA-ing but then again, Ive only lost in crypto so far so my only experience has been to get rekt 🤣