When Should You Buy Bitcoin?
Follow this guide to success.
In this guide we will keep it simple. I will tell you exactly when to buy Bitcoin using one of the best indicators available.
It’s called the Bitcoin Realized Price.
This indicator never failed to provide an excellent entry during bear markets. Scroll down to start.
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First, let’s start with the boring definition before we look at the chart and what it tells us. TLDR: Bitcoin never bottomed without trading below its realized price.
The overall realized price represents the average cost for all Bitcoin holders and can be used to assess whether the market is in a downturn. When the market price falls below this level, it indicates that holders are entering a phase of unrealized losses. Historically, periods when the market price is below the realized price often coincide with the bottoms of Bitcoin's major cycles.
The current Bitcoin Realized Price is 53k
Any price under that level is a buy signal based on historical data. Ideally, you want to dollar-cost average (DCA) as soon as Bitcoin falls under that green line. You DCA until it climbs above it.
If you still have money left to buy at that point, you FOMO in.
This is how the data looks from previous cycles:
2011: BTC bottomed at $2.1, 58% below the Realized Price of $5
2015: BTC bottomed at $152, 49% below the Realized Price of $300
2018: BTC bottomed at $3.2k, 47% below the Realized Price of $6k
2022: BTC bottomed at $15.4k, 34% below the Realized Price of $23.3k
This pattern also shows that with each subsequent cycle, Bitcoin bottoms closer to the realized price. Consequentially, in this bear market, Bitcoin will likely bottom between 50k and 40k.
That’s around 24% under today’s realized price if Bitcoin find a bottom around 40k. In my previous posts, I argued the range between 50k and 30k is a prime buy area. This supports that case and may indicate a price under 40k is optimistic.
Either way, be a buyer under 50k. Don’t miss that entry!
Another point worth mentioning is that with the exception of the COVID crash, Bitcoin stays for months under its realized price. Therefore, plenty of time to buy in and DCA. There is no rush and you want to capture the full move until the bottom.
Don’t FOMO in one go as soon as the price falls under the green line, give yourself time and margin to scale in.
If I were to guess for a prime time to do this, I’d place that period between the last quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Anywhere in that range you should get your prime entry.
I will of course update you as soon as this happens and revise this analysis.
What’s your current strategy to buy Bitcoin? Leave your best tips in the comments so others can benefit.
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