If you’re thinking to buy more Bitcoin, the time is ripe. We’ve entered a phase in the 4-year cycle where buying has a marginal risk, while the long-term upside is substantial. That’s because…
…the BTC price is under the 200 weekly moving average (SMA).
The last time this happened, Bitcoin bottomed within three months. Will history repeat? Scroll down for the juicy charts.
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Take a look at the chart below.
Historically, buying anywhere under the 200 SMA on the weekly timeframe has been a prime entry. Similar to 2022, the Bitcoin price fell under the 200 SMA in June 2026 and is now re-testing it as a resistance.
If Bitcoin fails to move above 65k, then lower lows are likely and you should buy them! Not financial advice of course.
In 2022, the price fell another 30% after the 200 SMA turned into resistance. A similar drop in 2026 from current levels would take Bitcoin close to 45k. Such a drop is a must buy in my book. The only question is, will it happen?
Right now, we can’t say for sure, but the longer the price fails to regain 65k as a support, the probability of a drop lower in the next three months increases. That would also coincide with my thesis of buying between October - December 2026, no matter the price.
On the bearish side, Bitcoin’s volatility and volume are in decline ever since the price first crashed below the 200 SMA in early June. That nuked a lot of investors and many retail users have already left since, if not earlier.
That’s good if you’re looking for a bottom to form!
As you can see below, the trend has been bearish for quite some time with crashing volumes month-over-month. This has impacted many protocols and exchanges that rely on retail volume to survive.
And the damage was quick to show. For example, three big exchanges closed shop between July and August this year: AscendEX, BitMEX, and BitMart.
While some of that can be attributed to regulatory scrutiny, where even Binance lost its access to EU users, most of the damage was from the market. Lack of users and crashing trade volumes cannot sustain exchanges with bloated staff.
This comes in contrast to Hyperliquid that employs 15 people and has been very resilient during these times. Still, even there, the HYPE token topped in June and has been in a correction since.
What this tells me is that a bottom is not too far away and can play in three ways:
Another spike in sell volume (crash) will follow that forms a definite bottom around 40k. It can be triggered by any event like a Trump tweet if market sentiment is off.
Slow bleed down until sentiment improves and price stops making lower lows. At that point, a spike in buy volume would signal a possible reversal and bottom confirmation.
BTC moves above 65k and stay above it. That would make 58k the bottom. I see this as the least likely scenario.
Whatever happens, you need to be a buyer in those moments.
Definitely buy the next spike in sell volume. If that won’t materialize, the best course of action is to dollar-cost average (DCA) as long as the price sits under the 200 SMA on the weekly chart. You can aim to DCA for 3 to 4 months. That should allow you to capture the best discount prices.
On the bullish side, the divergence I covered in my previous post continues to build up momentum with higher lows on the weekly RSI and MACD. This tells me that sellers are losing interest and momentum will eventually signal buyers to return.
That’s because market forces follow the path of least resistance, and eventually, buying will trigger the bigger reaction in the price which will snap up in a few days surprising many. Keep an eye for that as another key signal to buy.
Bitcoin should give us a clear signal soon. This boring sideways price action won’t last. It’s already been three months of flat movement. Just check the chart below.
That resistance (65k) or support (60k) will eventually break.
When the price leaves this blue channel, it’s time to take action. Things will get spicy and opportunities will emerge to get positioned for the next couple of years. Make sure you’re there when it happens.
Don’t be AFK now. The next few months are critical to your future success.
When do you plan to buy Bitcoin? Leave a comment below!
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Great timing of this post lol.