The Bitcoin ETFs are approved. Here's what they won't tell you.
After three days of trading, the BTC ETF volume reached nearly $10 billion. Impressive numbers, but there's a catch.
With institutions here, the nature of crypto cycles is about to change. Big money can now control Bitcoin and its price like never before. As a result, you may soon be priced-out of this market. This is on purpose.
In total, 11 ETFs went live last Thursday and the first day of trading reached $4.6 billion in volume - twice gold’s ETF record! Early adopters have been proven right.
This is a pivotal moment for Bitcoin as we enter a new chapter in crypto. In the process, Bitcoin consolidates its market leader position and remains the undisputed king. However, it’s not all good news. TLDR at the end.
With almost $10 billion in volume traded over the span of three days, the Bitcoin ETFs are a resounding success. Everyone benefited. Grayscale could finally sell, and they did. In total, over $500 mil in Bitcoin was sold by GBTC. Before this, Grayscale was a buy and hold investment only.
Luckily, the other ETFs were net buyers and a total of $800 million in new Bitcoin was bought. Divided by three and you get close to $300 million per day! That’s 7,000 BTC / day taken off market!
With only 900 new BTC mined every day, this buy pressure could soon be reflected in Bitcoin’s price. Not to mention that in 90 days, the halving event will cut mining rewards by half to 450 BTC / day (expected on 22 April 2024).
That’s not a lot of Bitcoin left if these ETF numbers continue like this. Even if volume falls, the ETFs represent additional demand that was not present in the past. Plus, they will have to compete with retail, whales and folks like Saylor from MicroStrategy.
The result of all this?
Bitcoin will pump like never before in this cycle and we will witness institutional FOMO at unprecedented levels.
Why?
Bitcoin is the first ETF that has a fixed supply! This is historic and those Wall Street folks have never seen this before
Going forward, the 4-year pump and dump crypto cycle based on BTC’s halving is about to dramatically change. First, Bitcoin will pump hard. No one knows how high it will go but anywhere between 100k to 200k is realistic. More than that and it would get crazy pretty fast.
Second, once a top is found, the crash will come. But it will not be what you think. Bitcoin’s volatility will likely decreased significantly after this cycle is over and its crash may not be as big as in the past (-77% in 2022).
If you missed buying under 50k, you may never have the chance to see such prices again. Therefore, if you are reading this, know that you are still early! If Bitcoin manages to hold a six-digits price in the next bear market, most retail will be successfully priced-out of ever buying it.
It is entirely realistic that Bitcoin may eventually exceed gold’s market cap at over $13 trillion. That would place 1 BTC around half a million dollars, hardly something retail can afford. But they will surely afford that $50 Bitcoin ETF share.
By simply pumping the price high enough, institutional players can control the Bitcoin market and push you to buy their ETF shares instead since at that point it will be more attractive and accessible. Why bother with self-custody, seeds and hardware wallets when BlackRock can do it for 0.25% a year?
As a result, most people will never own and hold custody of actual BTC, even if Bitcoin is divisible by 100 million and you can buy a fraction of it (called Satoshi). Mission accomplished! Most Bitcoin will be in the hands of institutions.
Bitcoin will no longer be in our control, but their control
As Bitcoin matures as an asset class and its ETFs AUM grow into tens if not hundreds of billions, its volatility will decrease naturally. That means discounts will no longer be as significant in future bear markets.
Moreover, those institutional players have every interest to keep prices from falling too much or their commissions will suffer. This is also a real incentive to control Bitcoin’s price. How can they control it?
Bitcoin is now fully integrated in the US financial markets. That means anyone with cheap access to USD can short or long Bitcoin to infinity until the desired price is reached. With spot ETFs available, they now have all the tools required for that.
We know that US banks can borrow infinite dollars from the FED on demand and they can use those dollars to pump and dump any market. A quick glance at the real estate bubble is a good example. Could Bitcoin be next?
If you are here to make money, this may not concern you much since no matter how you look at this, numbers will go up. Fast. However, on a longer timeframe, it does pose some dangers to the original ethos of Bitcoin, that of being an alternative to the current fiat-based financial system.
In this way, Bitcoin could be captured by Wall Street. However, Bitcoin is more than just sound money or digital gold. It is a movement that can change how money is perceived and by its own success, transform the fiat-based system that just adopted it.
The Bitcoin ETF approval showed altcoins are undervalued, particularly Ethereum
The approval of a Bitcoin ETF was extremely bullish for altcoins. Ethereum immediately pumped on this news. Maybe this was also because Ethereum is next in line to be considered for an ETF.
However, Ethereum’s journey may be quite different because the SEC still does not know if ETH is a security or not. The vote to approve the Bitcoin ETF was a 3 votes in favor and 2 against out of 5. The decision rested on one vote!
It would be surprising to see ETH win a similar vote considering its fundamentals are so different compared to Bitcoin. The SEC declared Bitcoin an asset, the same cannot be said about Ethereum or most altcoins.
Regardless, these developments showed that altcoins appear undervalued in the eyes of investors and the Ethereum ecosystem is positioned to gain the most.
TLDR & Tips to Remember
The Bitcoin ETFs broke records. Bitcoin’s price is next to do that
After the BTC halving (April 2024) the market will get crazy
Wall Street never had an asset to buy with a fixed supply
Expect future crypto cycles to not be the same as institutions are here now
Retail will likely be priced-out of this market after this cycle
Bitcoin could be the next big bubble created by Wall Street
People mistake Bitcoin as an asset instead of a transformative movement
Altcoins are undervalued right now, particularly Ethereum
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>As a result, most people will never own and hold custody of actual BTC, even if Bitcoin is divisible by 100 million and you can buy a fraction of it (called Satoshi). Mission accomplished! Most Bitcoin will be in the hands of institutions.
What? BTC being divisible is exactly what prevents this. Unless it's a typo and you meant that people won't be able to buy a whole coin, but I'm not sure what that would change
>Bitcoin is now fully integrated in the US financial markets. That means anyone with cheap access to USD can short or long Bitcoin to infinity until the desired price is reached.
Funny you would worry about FED even if Tether is already doing that for years
Good one