The Bitcoin Halving is close. DO NOT SELL!
They will try to shake you, scare you or intimidate you. Don't fall for it.
The clock is ticking. We’re less than a month until the next Bitcoin halving and this recent correction was just one of many attempts to scare you. Whales know the game very well and they are after your coins before the mega pump.
Do not fall for it!
Hold strong and don’t let them intimidate you.
As the bull market continues, there will be more attempts to get your coins. You have about one year left to make money. Don’t sell early! TLDR at the end.
The countdown has started. Everyone is getting ready for the big rally post-halving. Those that sell before 20 April 2024 are easily shaken. You never sell before the halving. What you do instead is position yourself for the mega pump!
I rotated into some juicy altcoins during this most recent correction and I wrote more about that in Alpha Post 18 and 19. Some of those alts already pumped by over 50%! But the real rally is still ahead of us. Be on our Discord for that!
Based on the past price action, Bitcoin rallies for about a year and a half after the halving and for about 10 months after the price breaks above the old all-time high (ATH).
Surprisingly, for the first time ever, Bitcoin broke above its old ATH before the halving! I wrote quite a bit on that in this previous post. Give it a read too since it will help you plan your exit.
However, that puts us in a conundrum…
What should be our starting point for the coming mega pump?
The January Bitcoin ETF approval?
The breakout above 69k (old ATH) in early March?
The halving in April?
This is important because each of those assumptions will impact when you should book profits and exit this market. What’s certain is that this cycle is different and it’s speeding up!
Look at the below chart. Notice how the time between ATH to ATH breakout has decreased. 1,176 days, then 1,085 days, and most recently 840 days. The reason the latter is the shortest is because BTC made a new record soon after the ETF approval and before the halving!
Bitcoin always topped within 10 to 11 months after the price broke above the old ATH. For this reason, I am tempted to take our starting point the March breakout above 69k and count 10 months from there. If things stay the same, this would see BTC top between December 2024 and January 2025.
Waiting a year and a half after the April halving may not be a good bet in my opinion. By summer or autumn of 2025 I’d expect us to be in a bear market if this cycle continues at this speed. That’s because the price is moving faster, not slower!
The most promising projection is the one below that uses the 2016-2017 rally as a baseline (in red). As soon as the current price deviates from it, we will know if this cycle moves faster or slower. So far, we’re at a similar speed or faster depending how the March & April candles will close. The exit window on the chart is between October 2024 and March 2025. That’s right on target using our above assumptions.
The mega pump will have corrections. Use those opportunities to rebalance your portfolio and maximize your exposure to winners and strong performers like I did in the past two weeks.
I also looked at the data and compared to the last two bull markets, Bitcoin appears to average a 21% correction in this bull cycle.
2016 - 2017 bull market: -37% average correction
2020 - 2021 bull market: -33% average correction
2023 - 2024 bull market: -21% average correction to date
If Bitcoin drops by 20%, that’s an instant buy, at least in the next couple of months. By the end of 2024, I’d not risk buying anymore dips. Also notice how with every passing cycle, the corrections become less severe. This was also the case with the maximum drawdown in a bear market from Bitcoin’s ATH.
2018 - 2019 bear market = -84% crash
2021 - 2022 bear market = -77% crash
2025 - 2026 bear market = ???
Another way to know you are selling at the right time is when Coinbase breaks new records in volume. If it hits over $150 billion in a quarter you’ll be spot on. Notice in the chart below that we’re just picking up speed.
Lastly, do not be fooled by whales! They will do everything to scare you and get your Bitcoins. Either during corrections or in the next bear market. Never lose faith in Bitcoin, it already proved everyone wrong in the past 15 years.
The trend is your friend and Bitcoin is be your best friend in the crypto casino.
TLDR & Tips to Remember
Do not sell before the April halving, you’re selling early if so!
Use corrections over 20% to rebalance your portfolio and buy strength
Don’t get shaken, scared or afraid. The whales are after your coins!
Start booking profits consistently in the second half of 2024
When you hear about Coinbase breaking records in volume, sell
Book serious profits between October 2024 and March 2025
Liquidate all altcoins after Bitcoin tops, don’t wait too long after that
Once the market turns bearish, don’t buy anything for 1 to 2 years
Never sell your best friend, aka Bitcoin (always keep some forever)
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All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
The goal is to never sell :)
Great article!