Your Top Crypto Alpha #85
What's the best crypto alpha this week?
This week I tested Polymarket and found a strategy that can print. If you are looking to spice up your trading. Keep reading, I’ll share all the details.
Before that, I’ll take a look at Bitcoin and remind you that YCC subscriptions will be updated as of March 1st.
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Latest Bitcoin Price Forecast
TLDR: Bitcoin nuked in February and fell by over 20%! That sent the price to 60k before the current bounce. Even if we get a relief rally, I expect lower lows later this year.
A few days ago, I wrote an extensive post about where Bitcoin could bottom in 2026. The most promising area is between 50k and 30k, as highlighted on the chart by that circle in red.
I do not think Bitcoin bottomed at 60k. A simple check of the monthly MACD confirms this since that indicator is only starting to drop and has plenty of room left to go. Prepare accordingly and hoard cash to buy the bottom.
I expect Bitcoin to bottom until October or latest by the end of the year. A good way to confirm that is to check the BTC/Gold chart I detailed in my above post already mentioned.
If you manage to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin under 50k later this year, you’re going to have a generational entry in the next five to ten years. Make the most of it if it comes to that.
Don’t be scared if that happens, deploy your cash by laddering limit buy orders from 50k to 30k or lower. Try to catch any wick down. You’ll be glad you did later.
Now let’s move to the Polymarket alpha.
How to Print on Polymarket
This past week, Polymarket added a new crypto market for Bitcoin that resolves every five minutes! That allows for 12 trade an hour or 288 per day. Several bot developers literally made 100k or more within 24h since this market was launched.
In what follows, I’ll share a trading strategy that can print if executed well. You can book 10% to 50% profits in minutes.
The way it works is that every five minutes this market takes the start price of Bitcoin which becomes the target. If the price ends up above the target after five minutes those that bet on UP win. If the price ends below, those that bet on DOWN win.
In TradFi we call these binary options. You also have 15M, 1H, 4H, 1D options.
The winners take all and the losers lose their bet. This is why you want a high win rate over time and to cut your losses fast before the market expires if the price goes against you.
Since this resolves within five minutes, your time to act is short. But that is also an advantage since you are only exposed to the market for a few minutes at a time. If you ride the trends well, this is free money due to arbitrage opportunities.
Arbitrage opportunities means that Polymarket takes time to adjust to price action movements which allows you to take favorable positions and capitalize on the gap before it is closed.
Polymarket prices also have a small delay compared to live Bitcoin price action. This can be critical to success, but this delay will likely be reduced over time due to bots.
To start, all you need is a crypto wallet with USDC. Connect to Polymarket and make a USDC deposit. Use a cheap network like Arbitrum or Polygon for the deposit. Note that you will also need a few Polygon tokens for gas fees since Polymarket is build on top of the Polygon network. More deposit options below.
Note that if you connect from geo-blocked countries you will not be able to open an account. You can use a VPN, but you may risk your account being banned if so.
Next is my Polymarket strategy. You can also apply this to higher timed binary options like 1H and up. Let’s start printing!