Where Will Bitcoin Bottom in 2026?

October looks hot.

The next couple of months are a good candidate for a bottom and you got to keep a close eye on the charts.

While most are calling the market dead, smart money is preparing to buy.

In this post, we’ll look at Bitcoin’s previous bear market and how it compares to today. But first, a few words on the public sale from Squid which is going live in 24h!

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You got to be pretty bold to do a public sale in today’s market, yet Squid is totally going for it. If you don’t know Squid, this is an aggregator that bridges crypto assets across chains. Partners include Maelstrom, Ripple, and Polychain Capital.

The tokenomics look good to me since sale participants get full access to their tokens upon TGE while most of the team and investors are locked out for over 12 months via vesting. The raise is also reasonable at $2.25M.

You can participate via Legion or Kraken. If you used Squid in the past you can fill in the priority allocation form to get ahead of the crowd. If you used Legion with other public sales, this will be pretty straightforward, you deposit USDC on Ethereum and then see if you’re selected once the round closes. If not, you get the cash back.

Long term, I’d be careful about holding this token beyond 12 months post-TGE since once the vesting ends, the token will inflate quite a bit. This thread also gives a good overview.

With that behind us, let’s move to Bitcoin.

The above chart went viral on X the other day. The more people call Bitcoin dead, the more confident you should be in buying. This is also an excellent sign that we’re approaching a bottom.

The other bottom signal is Saylor selling Bitcoin recently which prompted his MSTR and STRC shares to crash hard. See the charts below.

I’d be patient here, but the above price action on MSTR and STRC shows we’re entering the last phase of a bear market where people lose faith and exit at massive losses.

There is also the aspect of leverage.

A lot of investors bought STRC to farm that 12% yield, on leverage. However, as soon as STRC started to fall, they were margin called, and then a liquidation cascade started for anyone with a leverage beyond 3x.

Other people decided to launch stablecoins backed by STRC a while back, marketing that yield as easy money. As you can imagine, their stablecoin stopped being stable as soon as STRC fell below $100. The idea was that STRC will stay around $100 due to its yield. This assumption was proven wrong as soon as STRC crashed to $70.

The reason I mention these things is because the financial alchemy created by Saylor is unraveling before our eyes. He constructed a house of cards or a ponzi called Strategy which is no longer working. Him being forced to sell Bitcoin was the key signal.

That’s exactly what you want to see if you’re waiting for a bottom.

While the bottom may still take some time to materialize, I don’t think it’s far away anymore. On the contrary, it may be just around the corner. That’s why I took a look at the previous Bitcoin bear market and mapped it across the ongoing one.

The result speaks for itself.

If the past is of any indication in the future, then you want to be a buyer of Bitcoin around October 2026. This chart says Bitcoin will fall under 40k briefly in October then start its next bull run in 2027.

That’s pretty much aligned with my current bias. We bottom in late 2026 and then 2027 turns into a bullish year. I also said for a while now that buying anywhere under 50k should be a solid entry and I wrote more on that here.

Considering that Bitcoin already traded under 60k this past week, we’re getting very close now. Use these coming months wisely and let me know in the comments what’s your key signal to buy Bitcoin?

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