Bitcoin enters price discovery! When do you sell?
We are in the most exciting part of a crypto cycle and $100k is in sight!
The wait is over.
Your hard work is about to be rewarded handsomely.
Everything you have read in this newsletter will come together in the next few months to complete a full cycle.
This period is critical to your success today and in the future. This is your time to shine and apply everything you have learned. Congratulations if you made it this far.
Now let’s get down to business. TLDR at the end.
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We just entered the last stage of a four year cycle. This is both the most exciting and scary part. Volatility explodes, prices swing in double digits overnight, and new records are made.
What is your exit? You need one to make it. More on that later.
Just this week, Bitcoin touched $90,000. That’s a new record price and the day with the biggest pump in a 24h period in nominal terms. BTC increased by over $8,300 in one day. Just check the below table.
Soon, swings of $10,000 a day will be normal. Crazy to even write this, but it’s already 83% true. No wonder, in my last alpha post I told you to stop overcomplicating things and buy one coin.
It was Bitcoin.
At that time, the price was 70k. Bitcoin pumped almost 30% since then! Many look for alpha in the altcoin space when the biggest alpha is right in front of them, every day.
Bitcoin has the best risk/reward ratio in crypto. When you adjust for risk and volatility, nothing beats its returns. Please remember this when you look for new shiny coins that come with increased risks.
Nevertheless, altcoins have also exploded. For example, DOGE almost tripled since the start of November. I’ve been recommending it for months when it was around 10 cents, now it’s around 40 cents.
This is the part of the cycle where everyone makes easy money.
However, this does not last. It’s usually the shortest part of a cycle and also the last stage before a cycle ends. The faster and higher prices move, the closer we get to a top in this cycle. Therefore, if this momentum continues like this for many weeks, we will get to a top pretty fast.
Here is the most bullish scenario:
Bitcoin hits 300k by April 2025. Just five months from now.
Can it happen? I have good news on that. Scroll down.
If the current momentum will mirror the most aggressive bull run from the previous cycle (in pink above, period October 2020 to April 2021), then Bitcoin may do another 4x after the breakout point. We just had a similar breakout in this cycle.
If you look at the projection, you can see that the price action from the past mirrors the resistance levels at 100k, 200k and 300k. Strange coincidence. What will happen we will all find out, but there are reasons to be optimistic.
There are rumors circulating on X that nation states are FOMOing into Bitcoin.
Plus, we already have confirmation that institutional investors are allocating a percentage of their funds to Bitcoin with the message “you must get exposure”. Good thing the Bitcoin ETFs went live this year since anyone can buy it now.
What should you do?
If you’ve been with me for some time you should know already that this is not really the time to get exposure to the market because you are LATE. You get exposure in a bear market or when things are quiet (or dead). We’re very much the opposite of that now. Euphoria is building up, FOMO is starting.
This last part of the cycle is about selling and booking profits. This does not mean you can’t buy and make money. You can, but the risks are HIGHER now.
Bitcoin entered price discovery.
That means Bitcoin broke the last key resistance (previous all-time high) and nobody knows how high it can go from here and where it will top. It’s anyone’s guess and the price will go wild.
Buyers and sellers will dance around each other trying to find a top. This is a very dangerous game because when the music stops, you don’t want to be trapped holding the bag. Also watch your leverage since volatility and price swings will be unreal.
Therefore, your aim is to get out while the music still plays. Based on the above chart, the music may play the loudest until early 2025. That’s your exit window time wise. Forget prices, you need to GTFO in that period. In what follows, I’ll share more tips on that.
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Aim to sell all altcoins when the music is loudest
A good metric on when to sell your altcoins is to watch what Ethereum and Solana are doing. If they make a new all-time high, then that’s a great signal to start taking profits on the way up across altcoins.
Note that most altcoins, like say DOGE, have their own cycle and may pump for other reasons faster or later. In the case of this meme coin, it is because Elon Musk and President Trump are pumping it to no end.
This recent statement released by Trump is simply mind-blowing for DOGE holders. Its price may well go to $1 considering the exposure it will get from this new Department of Government Efficiency aka DOGE. 🤣
If you want more tailored recommendations for particular altcoins, then join our Discord and ask questions there or become a Patron.
The point is, make sure you get rid of all altcoins around the time Bitcoin tops. Do not get stuck holding a sinking ship when the next bear market starts.
Do not sell Bitcoin unless you have to
I don’t recommend selling Bitcoin because over time it will continue to perform, likely to hit $1 million by 2030 or just after. In this scenario, do you want to sell? Hard call. It’s up to you.
If you do sell, start anywhere above 100k and gradually unload in clips of say 10% or less per sale. You want to capture the rally in its full length as you unload, ideally most of it near the top. You can do the same with alts.
If you have under one BTC, your focus should be on accumulating as much as you can or saving cash to buy more in the next bear market. If you have more than one, you can try to speculate and sell some at the top to get cash for buying more later. In any event, hold any profits from alts to buy BTC in the next bear market.
Whatever you do, do not risk losing your Bitcoin. It’s your ticket to early retirement. Focus on the long term. Nevertheless, if it’s life changing money, think hard why you would sell. If that goes into a house, that house better be worth millions later. Remember, Bitcoin is the hardest asset on the planet!
Manage FOMO or get rekt
A common mistake is people sell, see prices continue to go up, and buy back. Congratulations, you just got played. Likely you will re-enter at the top.
That’s an easy trap and many fall for it.
Therefore, have a clear exit plan. Make it realistic. As soon as you sell, move the profits somewhere hard to touch them, like a hardware wallet. Or put them in Gold (e.g. PAXG) and forget about that for one year, at least.
Return with your profits after the market panics and enters dead mode aka Bitcoin news articles saying it is dead. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can then. I will be here when it happens, don’t worry.
Let me know what is your exit strategy in the comments and also share your target for Bitcoin below.
TLDR & Tips to Remember
We’ve entered the most exciting part of this crypto cycle before it ends
This is when you sell and book massive profits, aim to exit in full from alts
The end of a cycle is full of opportunities, but also extremely dangerous
Have a clear exit plan and execute without letting FOMO take over
The exit window may not last longer than a few months, make the best of it
Your end goal should be more Bitcoin, nothing else. Think long term!
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All info is provided for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
Thank you, bro. You and a couple of other people here are making it much easier for us, the less experienced! I will be on the lookout for your views as the top nears.
For my exit strategy I'm using soft percentages/prices. For example if I'm up 100x I exit. Yes, I am aware of the danger of being fixated on a particular or percentage to exit, that's why I said it is a "soft percentages/prices". I'll be combining with looking out for mass euphoria.